Seattle Kraken at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken- Shane WrightGoals1
- Brandon MontourAssists1
- Shane WrightPoints1
Lightning- Luke GlendeningGoals1
- Ryan McDonaghAssists1
- Luke GlendeningPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:14Nick Paul Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (37), Anthony Cirelli (23)1–4
- P315:24Shane Wright Goal (13) Tip-In, assists: Brandon Montour (18), Josh Mahura (7)1–3
- P312:58Luke Glendening Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Cam Atkinson (5), Michael Eyssimont (5)0–3
- P311:15Nikita Kucherov Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Brayden Point (28)0–2
- P29:27Brandon Hagel Goal (27) Backhand, assists: Ryan McDonagh (17), Emil Lilleberg (13)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P29:27Brandon Hagel Goal (27) Backhand, assists: Ryan McDonagh (17), Emil Lilleberg (13)SEA 0 – 1 TB · TB 64% → 81% +17TB 64% → 81%+17 pts
- P311:15Nikita Kucherov Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Brayden Point (28)SEA 0 – 2 TB · TB 87% → 98% +11TB 87% → 98%+11 pts
- P312:58Luke Glendening Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Cam Atkinson (5), Michael Eyssimont (5)SEA 0 – 3 TB · TB 99% → >99% +1TB 99% → >99%+1 pts
- P315:24Shane Wright Goal (13) Tip-In, assists: Brandon Montour (18), Josh Mahura (7)SEA 1 – 3 TB · SEA <1% → <1% +0SEA <1% → <1%+0 pts
- P318:14Nick Paul Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (37), Anthony Cirelli (23)SEA 1 – 4 TB · TB >99% → >99% +0TB >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- TB 69%
- ML SEA +215 / TB -260
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.6 pts
- TB: Elo 71.1%, market 69.5%
- Fair odds
- TB -228
- SEA +228 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 2.7 – 3.8 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1463 | 1541 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | SEA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −7 | +6 | SEA: Ales Stezka (no track record yet) · TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.16 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +156 Elo | TB 71.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 72.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 72.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 69.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.63rd of 32 |
| 23rd of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 2.87th of 32 |
| 20th of 32−0.2 | Margin | +0.84th of 32 |
| 27th of 3248.0% | Shot share | 50.3%12th of 32 |
| 17th of 3290.0% | Save percentage | 91.2%3rd of 32 |
| 22nd of 324–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 32 |
| 18th of 3212–15 | Road vs home | 18–96th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 30–28 | 28–27 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 7–12 | 19–20 |
| Underdog | 23–16 | 9–7 |
| Overs–unders | 28–30 | 25–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 1–2 TB in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.