Montreal Canadiens at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Jake EvansGoals1
- Christian DvorakAssists2
- Christian DvorakPoints2
Sabres- Alex TuchGoals1
- JJ PeterkaAssists1
- Alex TuchPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:22Jake Evans Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Christian Dvorak (14)4–2
- P219:57Alex Newhook Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Mike Matheson (22), Lane Hutson (42)3–2
- P213:33Josh Anderson Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Christian Dvorak (13), Lane Hutson (41)2–2
- P27:33Jiri Kulich Goal (12) Slap Shot, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (38), JJ Peterka (28)1–2
- P26:04Alex Tuch Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Jacob Bryson (5)1–1
- P21:13Cole Caufield Goal (29) Slap Shot, assists: Patrik Laine (10), Nick Suzuki (43)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P21:13Cole Caufield Goal (29) Slap Shot, assists: Patrik Laine (10), Nick Suzuki (43)MTL 1 – 0 BUF · MTL 44% → 62% +18MTL 44% → 62%+18 pts
- P26:04Alex Tuch Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Jacob Bryson (5)MTL 1 – 1 BUF · BUF 36% → 55% +19BUF 36% → 55%+19 pts
- P27:33Jiri Kulich Goal (12) Slap Shot, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (38), JJ Peterka (28)MTL 1 – 2 BUF · BUF 55% → 74% +18BUF 55% → 74%+18 pts
- P213:33Josh Anderson Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Christian Dvorak (13), Lane Hutson (41)MTL 2 – 2 BUF · MTL 25% → 45% +20MTL 25% → 45%+20 pts
- P219:57Alex Newhook Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Mike Matheson (22), Lane Hutson (42)MTL 3 – 2 BUF · MTL 46% → 70% +24MTL 46% → 70%+24 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Sabres 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- BUF 57%
- ML MTL +125 / BUF -145
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.1 pts
- BUF: Elo 57.3%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- BUF -133
- MTL +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 3.0 – 3.5 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1465 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | −1 | MTL: Jakub Dobes: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +51 Elo | BUF 57.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 57.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 57.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BUF 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.211th of 32 |
| 28th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 3.429th of 32 |
| 26th of 32−0.4 | Margin | −0.219th of 32 |
| 29th of 3247.3% | Shot share | 49.0%22nd of 32 |
| 30th of 3289.1% | Save percentage | 89.3%28th of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 17th of 3213–15 | Road vs home | 15–1416th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MTL |  BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 32–27 | 28–29 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–6 | 5–14 |
| Underdog | 31–21 | 23–15 |
| Overs–unders | 32–27 | 34–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MTL 4–2 BUF in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 6.