Anaheim Ducks at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks- Mason McTavishGoals1
- Troy TerryAssists1
- Mason McTavishPoints1
Sabres- JJ PeterkaGoals1
- Owen PowerAssists1
- Alex TuchPoints1
Scoring summary
- P39:31Henri Jokiharju Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Quinn (12), Dylan Cozens (19)2–3
- P35:34Alex Tuch Goal (20) Tip-In, assists: Dylan Cozens (18)2–2
- P31:56JJ Peterka Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Cozens (17), Owen Power (25)2–1
- P24:58Leo Carlsson Goal (11) Slap Shot, assists: Pavel Mintyukov (8), Isac Lundestrom (6)2–0
- P13:05Mason McTavish Goal (14) Slap Shot, assists: Jackson LaCombe (19), Troy Terry (26)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:05Mason McTavish Goal (14) Slap Shot, assists: Jackson LaCombe (19), Troy Terry (26)ANA 1 – 0 BUF · ANA 37% → 52% +15ANA 37% → 52%+15 pts
- P24:58Leo Carlsson Goal (11) Slap Shot, assists: Pavel Mintyukov (8), Isac Lundestrom (6)ANA 2 – 0 BUF · ANA 59% → 76% +17ANA 59% → 76%+17 pts
- P31:56JJ Peterka Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Cozens (17), Owen Power (25)ANA 2 – 1 BUF · BUF 13% → 31% +19BUF 13% → 31%+19 pts
- P35:34Alex Tuch Goal (20) Tip-In, assists: Dylan Cozens (18)ANA 2 – 2 BUF · BUF 28% → 56% +28BUF 28% → 56%+28 pts
- P39:31Henri Jokiharju Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Quinn (12), Dylan Cozens (19)ANA 2 – 3 BUF · BUF 56% → 84% +29BUF 56% → 84%+29 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Sabres 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- BUF 63%
- ML ANA +160 / BUF -190
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.3 pts
- BUF: Elo 59.7%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- BUF -170
- ANA +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 2.9 – 3.6 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1445 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | 0 | ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) · BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +69 Elo | BUF 59.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 64.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 63.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BUF 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 322.6 | Goals scored | 3.310th of 32 |
| 20th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.428th of 32 |
| 28th of 32−0.5 | Margin | −0.117th of 32 |
| 30th of 3246.5% | Shot share | 49.0%22nd of 32 |
| 8th of 3291.0% | Save percentage | 89.3%27th of 32 |
| 4th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 32 |
| 20th of 3212–17 | Road vs home | 14–1417th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ANA |  BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 38–18 | 28–27 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 3–1 | 5–13 |
| Underdog | 35–17 | 23–14 |
| Overs–unders | 19–37 | 33–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ANA 2–1 BUF in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.