New York Rangers at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Artemi PanarinAssists1
- Artemi PanarinPoints1
Sabres- Tage ThompsonGoals2
- Jason ZuckerAssists3
- Tage ThompsonPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:24Henri Jokiharju Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Benson (10), Dennis Gilbert (4)2–8
- P35:40Ryan McLeod Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Jason Zucker (26), Owen Power (24)2–7
- P33:47Tage Thompson Goal (28) Wrist Shot, assists: Jiri Kulich (6), Rasmus Dahlin (37)2–6
- P211:25Mika Zibanejad Goal (12) Batted, assists: Adam Fox (41), J.T. Miller (30)2–5
- P25:29Chris Kreider Goal (17) Tip-In, assists: Artemi Panarin (35), J.T. Miller (29)1–5
- P118:21Rasmus Dahlin Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Tage Thompson (23), Jason Zucker (25)0–5
- P117:33Ryan McLeod Goal (13) Tip-In, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (36), Jason Zucker (24)0–4
- P115:32Tage Thompson Goal (27) Backhand, assists: JJ Peterka (27)0–3
- P111:58Rasmus Dahlin Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Jordan Greenway (5)0–2
- P11:46Jack Quinn Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:46Jack Quinn Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: noneNYR 0 – 1 BUF · BUF 45% → 59% +15BUF 45% → 59%+15 pts
- P111:58Rasmus Dahlin Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Jordan Greenway (5)NYR 0 – 2 BUF · BUF 61% → 76% +14BUF 61% → 76%+14 pts
- P115:32Tage Thompson Goal (27) Backhand, assists: JJ Peterka (27)NYR 0 – 3 BUF · BUF 77% → 88% +11BUF 77% → 88%+11 pts
- P117:33Ryan McLeod Goal (13) Tip-In, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (36), Jason Zucker (24)NYR 0 – 4 BUF · BUF 88% → 95% +6BUF 88% → 95%+6 pts
- P211:25Mika Zibanejad Goal (12) Batted, assists: Adam Fox (41), J.T. Miller (30)NYR 2 – 5 BUF · NYR 2% → 7% +5NYR 2% → 7%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NYR 55%
- ML NYR -135 / BUF +115
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.2 pts
- NYR: Elo 51.1%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- NYR -124
- BUF +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYR 3.4 – 3.1 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | 0 | NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +8 Elo | NYR 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 52.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYR 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.211th of 32 |
| 20th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.428th of 32 |
| 16th of 32−0.1 | Margin | −0.322nd of 32 |
| 20th of 3249.5% | Shot share | 48.9%21st of 32 |
| 12th of 3290.4% | Save percentage | 89.3%27th of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 14th of 3213–14 | Road vs home | 13–1423rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYR |  BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 20–35 | 27–27 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 12–26 | 5–13 |
| Underdog | 8–9 | 22–14 |
| Overs–unders | 25–30 | 32–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYR 3–2 BUF in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.