Buffalo Sabres at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres- JJ PeterkaGoals1
- Jack QuinnAssists1
- Alex TuchPoints1
Hurricanes- Jordan StaalGoals1
- Jordan MartinookAssists1
- Jordan StaalPoints1
Scoring summary
- P317:49Seth Jarvis Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–5
- P31:15JJ Peterka Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan McLeod (17), Jack Quinn (13)2–4
- P215:52Taylor Hall Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Roslovic (10), Jesperi Kotkaniemi (16)1–4
- P119:04Alex Tuch Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: none1–3
- P19:41Mikko Rantanen Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (25), Shayne Gostisbehere (25)0–3
- P17:57Sebastian Aho Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (42)0–2
- P16:09Jordan Staal Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Jordan Martinook (17)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:09Jordan Staal Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Jordan Martinook (17)BUF 0 – 1 CAR · CAR 65% → 78% +13CAR 65% → 78%+13 pts
- P17:57Sebastian Aho Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (42)BUF 0 – 2 CAR · CAR 78% → 88% +10CAR 78% → 88%+10 pts
- P19:41Mikko Rantanen Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (25), Shayne Gostisbehere (25)BUF 0 – 3 CAR · CAR 88% → 94% +6CAR 88% → 94%+6 pts
- P119:04Alex Tuch Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: noneBUF 1 – 3 CAR · BUF 5% → 11% +6BUF 5% → 11%+6 pts
- P215:52Taylor Hall Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Roslovic (10), Jesperi Kotkaniemi (16)BUF 1 – 4 CAR · CAR 92% → 98% +6CAR 92% → 98%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 66%
- ML BUF +180 / CAR -215
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.3 pts
- CAR: Elo 62.4%, market 65.6%
- Fair odds
- CAR -191
- BUF +191 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 2.8 – 3.7 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1543 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | −4 | BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) · CAR: Pyotr Kochetkov: team allows 0.11 more goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +88 Elo | CAR 62.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 70.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 69.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 65.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.210th of 32 |
| 28th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 2.88th of 32 |
| 17th of 32−0.1 | Margin | +0.48th of 32 |
| 20th of 3249.3% | Shot share | 55.8%1st of 32 |
| 27th of 3289.3% | Save percentage | 89.5%26th of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 26th of 329–16 | Road vs home | 21–72nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BUF |  CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 28–28 | 26–32 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 5–14 | 23–30 |
| Underdog | 23–14 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders | 33–23 | 24–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BUF 2–2 CAR in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.