Buffalo Sabres at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres- Alex TuchGoals1
- JJ PeterkaAssists2
- JJ PeterkaPoints2
Canadiens- Nick SuzukiGoals1
- Nick SuzukiAssists3
- Nick SuzukiPoints4
Scoring summary
- OT1:21Mike Matheson Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Juraj Slafkovsky (24), Nick Suzuki (46)3–4
- P318:59Rasmus Dahlin Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: JJ Peterka (30), Jiri Kulich (7)3–3
- P33:24Tage Thompson Goal (29) Slap Shot, assists: JJ Peterka (29), Jacob Bryson (6)2–3
- P218:07Alex Tuch Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Cozens (20), Dennis Gilbert (5)1–3
- P113:42Juraj Slafkovsky Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (45), Lane Hutson (44)0–3
- P111:41Nick Suzuki Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Mike Matheson (23)0–2
- P19:42Cole Caufield Goal (30) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (44), Lane Hutson (43)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:42Cole Caufield Goal (30) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (44), Lane Hutson (43)BUF 0 – 1 MTL · MTL 53% → 68% +15MTL 53% → 68%+15 pts
- P111:41Nick Suzuki Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Mike Matheson (23)BUF 0 – 2 MTL · MTL 68% → 81% +13MTL 68% → 81%+13 pts
- P33:24Tage Thompson Goal (29) Slap Shot, assists: JJ Peterka (29), Jacob Bryson (6)BUF 2 – 3 MTL · BUF 8% → 23% +15BUF 8% → 23%+15 pts
- P318:59Rasmus Dahlin Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: JJ Peterka (30), Jiri Kulich (7)BUF 3 – 3 MTL · BUF <1% → 50% +49BUF <1% → 50%+49 pts
- OT1:21Mike Matheson Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Juraj Slafkovsky (24), Nick Suzuki (46)BUF 3 – 4 MTL · MTL 51% → 93% +43MTL 51% → 93%+43 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Canadiens 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- MTL 53%
- ML BUF +105 / MTL -125
- Pre-line forecast
- MTL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MTL 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.4 pts
- MTL: Elo 54.6%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- MTL -114
- BUF +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 3.2 – 3.3 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1470 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −9 | −5 | BUF: James Reimer: team allows 0.22 more goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) · MTL: Sam Montembeault: team allows 0.12 more goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MTL +32 Elo | MTL 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MTL 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MTL 53.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MTL 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 3.014th of 32 |
| 29th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 3.427th of 32 |
| 20th of 32−0.2 | Margin | −0.425th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3248.9% | Shot share | 47.4%29th of 32 |
| 28th of 3289.3% | Save percentage | 89.1%30th of 32 |
| 6th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 26th of 329–17 | Road vs home | 15–1623rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BUF |  MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 28–30 | 33–27 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 5–15 | 1–6 |
| Underdog | 23–15 | 32–21 |
| Overs–unders | 34–24 | 32–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BUF 2–5 MTL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 7.