Anaheim Ducks at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks- Mason McTavishGoals2
- Jackson LaCombeAssists3
- Jackson LaCombePoints3
Oilers- Leon DraisaitlGoals1
- Leon DraisaitlAssists1
- Leon DraisaitlPoints2
Scoring summary
- P34:44Connor McDavid Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (47), Evan Bouchard (37)6–2
- P33:56Alex Killorn Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Trevor Zegras (10), Leo Carlsson (13)6–1
- P213:22Ryan Strome Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Jackson LaCombe (22), Frank Vatrano (18)5–1
- P118:38Mason McTavish Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Sam Colangelo (1), Cutter Gauthier (16)4–1
- P118:26Sam Colangelo Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Jackson LaCombe (21), Cutter Gauthier (15)3–1
- P113:37Mason McTavish Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Cutter Gauthier (14), Jackson LaCombe (20)2–1
- P111:57Leo Carlsson Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–1
- P110:05Leon Draisaitl Goal (45) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (54), Mattias Ekholm (19)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:05Leon Draisaitl Goal (45) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (54), Mattias Ekholm (19)ANA 0 – 1 EDM · EDM 74% → 85% +11EDM 74% → 85%+11 pts
- P111:57Leo Carlsson Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: noneANA 1 – 1 EDM · ANA 15% → 27% +12ANA 15% → 27%+12 pts
- P113:37Mason McTavish Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Cutter Gauthier (14), Jackson LaCombe (20)ANA 2 – 1 EDM · ANA 27% → 42% +15ANA 27% → 42%+15 pts
- P118:26Sam Colangelo Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Jackson LaCombe (21), Cutter Gauthier (15)ANA 3 – 1 EDM · ANA 45% → 62% +17ANA 45% → 62%+17 pts
- P118:38Mason McTavish Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Sam Colangelo (1), Cutter Gauthier (16)ANA 4 – 1 EDM · ANA 62% → 77% +15ANA 62% → 77%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Oilers 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 88.6% of 44 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 76%
- ML ANA +290 / EDM -380
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 76%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.8 pts
- EDM: Elo 69.7%, market 75.5%
- Fair odds
- EDM -309
- ANA +309 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 2.5 – 4.0 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1441 | 1557 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | −1 | ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) · EDM: Calvin Pickard: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +145 Elo | EDM 69.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 77.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 76.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 75.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 322.6 | Goals scored | 3.38th of 32 |
| 21st of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 2.913th of 32 |
| 27th of 32−0.5 | Margin | +0.49th of 32 |
| 30th of 3246.5% | Shot share | 53.8%3rd of 32 |
| 8th of 3290.8% | Save percentage | 89.9%19th of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 3–728th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3212–18 | Road vs home | 18–1211th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ANA |  EDM |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 40–19 | 22–38 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 3–2 | 16–36 |
| Underdog | 37–17 | 6–2 |
| Overs–unders | 21–38 | 27–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ANA 1–5 EDM in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.