Vancouver Canucks at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks- Tyler MyersGoals1
- Tyler MyersAssists1
- Tyler MyersPoints2
Ducks- Ryan StromeGoals1
- Ryan StromeAssists2
- Ryan StromePoints3
Scoring summary
- P317:54Troy Terry Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Strome (25), Isac Lundestrom (8)2–5
- P315:46Jackson LaCombe Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Mason McTavish (17)2–4
- P218:41Ryan Strome Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Mason McTavish (16), Troy Terry (28)2–3
- P29:09Cutter Gauthier Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Isac Lundestrom (7)2–2
- P25:27Frank Vatrano Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Strome (24), Troy Terry (27)2–1
- P116:52Pius Suter Goal (15) Poke, assists: Tyler Myers (16), Brock Boeser (18)2–0
- P13:17Tyler Myers Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Drew O'Connor (11), Conor Garland (21)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:17Tyler Myers Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Drew O'Connor (11), Conor Garland (21)VAN 1 – 0 ANA · VAN 52% → 67% +14VAN 52% → 67%+14 pts
- P116:52Pius Suter Goal (15) Poke, assists: Tyler Myers (16), Brock Boeser (18)VAN 2 – 0 ANA · VAN 68% → 82% +13VAN 68% → 82%+13 pts
- P25:27Frank Vatrano Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Strome (24), Troy Terry (27)VAN 2 – 1 ANA · ANA 16% → 30% +14ANA 16% → 30%+14 pts
- P29:09Cutter Gauthier Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Isac Lundestrom (7)VAN 2 – 2 ANA · ANA 29% → 48% +19ANA 29% → 48%+19 pts
- P218:41Ryan Strome Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Mason McTavish (16), Troy Terry (28)VAN 2 – 3 ANA · ANA 49% → 72% +23ANA 49% → 72%+23 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Canucks 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- VAN 52%
- ML VAN -120 / ANA +100
- Pre-line forecast
- VAN 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VAN 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.3 pts
- VAN: Elo 46.8%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- VAN -109
- ANA +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 2.8 – 2.7 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1443 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | VAN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −15 | +4 | VAN: Arturs Silovs: team allows 0.36 more goals than with its usual starter (≈16 weighted starts) · ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ANA +22 Elo | ANA 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VAN 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VAN 50.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VAN 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 2.632nd of 32 |
| 17th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.120th of 32 |
| 21st of 32−0.2 | Margin | −0.528th of 32 |
| 26th of 3248.2% | Shot share | 46.3%30th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3289.7% | Save percentage | 91.0%6th of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 32 |
| 9th of 3216–14 | Road vs home | 13–1423rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VAN |  ANA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 26–32 | 39–18 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 7–19 | 3–1 |
| Underdog | 19–13 | 36–17 |
| Overs–unders | 26–32 | 19–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VAN 4–0 ANA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.