Vancouver Canucks at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks- Conor GarlandGoals2
- Filip ChytilAssists2
- Conor GarlandPoints2
Kings- Warren FoegeleGoals1
- Jacob MoverareAssists1
- Warren FoegelePoints1
Scoring summary
- OT4:26Conor Garland Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (46), Filip Chytil (13)3–2
- P314:01Warren Foegele Goal (16) Tip-In, assists: Jordan Spence (17), Jacob Moverare (5)2–2
- P39:16Adrian Kempe Goal (26) Snap Shot, assists: Vladislav Gavrikov (17), Quinton Byfield (23)2–1
- P213:07Conor Garland Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Filip Chytil (12), Dakota Joshua (3)2–0
- P19:56Nils Hoglander Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Derek Forbort (6)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:56Nils Hoglander Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Derek Forbort (6)VAN 1 – 0 LA · VAN 39% → 54% +16VAN 39% → 54%+16 pts
- P213:07Conor Garland Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Filip Chytil (12), Dakota Joshua (3)VAN 2 – 0 LA · VAN 63% → 81% +18VAN 63% → 81%+18 pts
- P39:16Adrian Kempe Goal (26) Snap Shot, assists: Vladislav Gavrikov (17), Quinton Byfield (23)VAN 2 – 1 LA · LA 6% → 23% +18LA 6% → 23%+18 pts
- P314:01Warren Foegele Goal (16) Tip-In, assists: Jordan Spence (17), Jacob Moverare (5)VAN 2 – 2 LA · LA 15% → 54% +39LA 15% → 54%+39 pts
- OT4:26Conor Garland Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (46), Filip Chytil (13)VAN 3 – 2 LA · VAN 49% → >99% +51VAN 49% → >99%+51 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- LA 62%
- ML VAN +155 / LA -185
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.8 pts
- LA: Elo 59.5%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- LA -166
- VAN +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 2.4 – 3.1 LA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | LA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | +4 | VAN: Kevin Lankinen: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) · LA: David Rittich: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +67 Elo | LA 59.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 61.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 60.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LA 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | LA |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 2.918th of 32 |
| 15th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 2.63rd of 32 |
| 21st of 32−0.2 | Margin | +0.49th of 32 |
| 25th of 3248.4% | Shot share | 52.2%8th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3289.7% | Save percentage | 90.7%9th of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 32 |
| 11th of 3215–14 | Road vs home | 19–51st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VAN |  LA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 25–32 | 27–28 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–19 | 11–20 |
| Underdog | 18–13 | 16–8 |
| Overs–unders | 26–31 | 23–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VAN 2–4 LA in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.