Vegas Golden Knights at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- Brayden McNabbGoals1
- Tomas HertlAssists1
- Brayden McNabbPoints1
Kings- Trevor MooreGoals2
- Quinton ByfieldAssists4
- Quinton ByfieldPoints4
Scoring summary
- P317:41Kevin Fiala Goal (23) Backhand, assists: Adrian Kempe (23), Quinton Byfield (22)2–5
- P315:28Joel Edmundson Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Adrian Kempe (22), Quinton Byfield (21)2–4
- P38:31Warren Foegele Goal (15) Backhand, assists: Quinton Byfield (20)2–3
- P30:42Trevor Moore Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Warren Foegele (15), Darcy Kuemper (1)2–2
- P216:41Mark Stone Goal (15) Tip-In, assists: Noah Hanifin (18), Brett Howden (10)2–1
- P210:26Brayden McNabb Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Tomas Hertl (22), Kaedan Korczak (5)1–1
- P110:30Trevor Moore Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Quinton Byfield (19), Jordan Spence (16)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:30Trevor Moore Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Quinton Byfield (19), Jordan Spence (16)VGK 0 – 1 LA · LA 49% → 65% +16LA 49% → 65%+16 pts
- P210:26Brayden McNabb Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Tomas Hertl (22), Kaedan Korczak (5)VGK 1 – 1 LA · VGK 31% → 51% +20VGK 31% → 51%+20 pts
- P216:41Mark Stone Goal (15) Tip-In, assists: Noah Hanifin (18), Brett Howden (10)VGK 2 – 1 LA · VGK 51% → 73% +22VGK 51% → 73%+22 pts
- P30:42Trevor Moore Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Warren Foegele (15), Darcy Kuemper (1)VGK 2 – 2 LA · LA 25% → 49% +24LA 25% → 49%+24 pts
- P38:31Warren Foegele Goal (15) Backhand, assists: Quinton Byfield (20)VGK 2 – 3 LA · LA 50% → 79% +30LA 50% → 79%+30 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 51%
- ML VGK -115 / LA -105
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.0 pts
- VGK: Elo 46.1%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- VGK -104
- LA +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 2.8 – 2.7 LA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | LA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1534 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | −2 | VGK: Ilya Samsonov: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) · LA: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +27 Elo | LA 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 52.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | LA |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 2.920th of 32 |
| 6th of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 2.65th of 32 |
| 6th of 32+0.6 | Margin | +0.311th of 32 |
| 4th of 3253.8% | Shot share | 52.3%8th of 32 |
| 15th of 3290.1% | Save percentage | 90.7%9th of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 11th of 3214–14 | Road vs home | 18–51st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VGK |  LA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 32–25 | 26–28 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 22–23 | 11–20 |
| Underdog | 10–2 | 15–8 |
| Overs–unders | 26–31 | 22–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VGK 3–2 LA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.