Edmonton Oilers at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Oilers- Corey PerryGoals1
- Leon DraisaitlAssists2
- Leon DraisaitlPoints2
Hurricanes- Shayne GostisbehereAssists1
- Shayne GostisbeherePoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:59Evan Bouchard Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (46), Connor McDavid (53)3–1
- P34:26Sebastian Aho Goal (22) Tip-In, assists: Mikko Rantanen (43), Shayne Gostisbehere (26)2–1
- P216:29Corey Perry Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (45), Brett Kulak (14)2–0
- P15:08Adam Henrique Goal (8) Deflected, assists: Mattias Janmark (15)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:08Adam Henrique Goal (8) Deflected, assists: Mattias Janmark (15)EDM 1 – 0 CAR · EDM 41% → 56% +15EDM 41% → 56%+15 pts
- P216:29Corey Perry Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (45), Brett Kulak (14)EDM 2 – 0 CAR · EDM 66% → 84% +18EDM 66% → 84%+18 pts
- P34:26Sebastian Aho Goal (22) Tip-In, assists: Mikko Rantanen (43), Shayne Gostisbehere (26)EDM 2 – 1 CAR · CAR 10% → 28% +18CAR 10% → 28%+18 pts
- P319:59Evan Bouchard Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (46), Connor McDavid (53)EDM 3 – 1 CAR · EDM 100% → 100% +0EDM 100% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 60%
- ML EDM +140 / CAR -165
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.9 pts
- CAR: Elo 55.0%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- CAR -149
- EDM +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- EDM 3.0 – 3.5 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | EDM | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1552 | 1546 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | +3 | EDM: Calvin Pickard: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) · CAR: Frederik Andersen: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +35 Elo | CAR 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 54.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 54.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| EDM | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.38th of 32 |
| 12th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 2.88th of 32 |
| 10th of 32+0.3 | Margin | +0.48th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3254.0% | Shot share | 56.1%1st of 32 |
| 20th of 3289.7% | Save percentage | 89.5%26th of 32 |
| 27th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 7th of 3216–13 | Road vs home | 22–72nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  EDM |  CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 21–38 | 27–32 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 16–36 | 24–30 |
| Underdog | 5–2 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders | 27–32 | 25–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
EDM 1–2 CAR in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.