Chicago Blackhawks at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks- Ryan DonatoGoals2
- Alec MartinezAssists2
- Ryan DonatoPoints3
Ducks- Jackson LaCombeGoals1
- Frank VatranoAssists2
- Frank VatranoPoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:16Leo Carlsson Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Brian Dumoulin (14)6–3
- P310:56Ryan Donato Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Teuvo Teravainen (32)6–2
- P37:40Ryan Donato Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Bertuzzi (15), Alex Vlasic (21)5–2
- P34:53Lukas Reichel Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Craig Smith (7), Alec Martinez (7)4–2
- P214:41Jackson LaCombe Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Strome (26), Frank Vatrano (17)3–2
- P213:16Teuvo Teravainen Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Donato (22), TJ Brodie (8)3–1
- P210:24Patrick Maroon Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Lukas Reichel (12), Alec Martinez (6)2–1
- P28:33Leo Carlsson Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Frank Vatrano (16)1–1
- P27:48Wyatt Kaiser Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Teuvo Teravainen (31), Ilya Mikheyev (10)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P27:48Wyatt Kaiser Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Teuvo Teravainen (31), Ilya Mikheyev (10)CHI 1 – 0 ANA · CHI 43% → 63% +20CHI 43% → 63%+20 pts
- P28:33Leo Carlsson Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Frank Vatrano (16)CHI 1 – 1 ANA · ANA 37% → 57% +20ANA 37% → 57%+20 pts
- P210:24Patrick Maroon Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Lukas Reichel (12), Alec Martinez (6)CHI 2 – 1 ANA · CHI 44% → 64% +20CHI 44% → 64%+20 pts
- P214:41Jackson LaCombe Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Strome (26), Frank Vatrano (17)CHI 3 – 2 ANA · ANA 17% → 34% +18ANA 17% → 34%+18 pts
- P34:53Lukas Reichel Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Craig Smith (7), Alec Martinez (7)CHI 4 – 2 ANA · CHI 73% → 91% +18CHI 73% → 91%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Ducks 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- ANA 59%
- ML CHI +135 / ANA -160
- Pre-line forecast
- ANA 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ANA 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.4 pts
- ANA: Elo 62.5%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- ANA -145
- CHI +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 2.5 – 3.0 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1395 | 1447 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −4 | −2 | CHI: Arvid Soderblom: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) · ANA: John Gibson: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ANA +89 Elo | ANA 62.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ANA 57.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ANA 58.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ANA 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 2.630th of 32 |
| 30th of 323.6 | Goals allowed | 3.120th of 32 |
| 31st of 32−0.9 | Margin | −0.428th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3243.9% | Shot share | 46.3%30th of 32 |
| 21st of 3289.7% | Save percentage | 91.0%6th of 32 |
| 31st of 322–8 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 32 |
| 31st of 326–24 | Road vs home | 14–1417th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  ANA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 31–28 | 40–18 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 1–3 | 3–1 |
| Underdog | 30–25 | 37–17 |
| Overs–unders | 31–28 | 20–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 3–2 ANA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.