Chicago Blackhawks at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks- Ilya MikheyevGoals1
- Connor MurphyAssists3
- Connor MurphyPoints3
Golden Knights- Ivan BarbashevGoals2
- Brett HowdenAssists3
- Ivan BarbashevPoints4
Scoring summary
- P315:45Ivan Barbashev Goal (18) Tip-In, assists: Brett Howden (13), Noah Hanifin (20)5–7
- P39:44Philipp Kurashev Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Craig Smith (6), Connor Murphy (15)5–6
- P36:56Ilya Mikheyev Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Frank Nazar (10), Connor Murphy (14)4–6
- P213:38Keegan Kolesar Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Ivan Barbashev (21), Nicolas Roy (14)3–6
- P25:30Ethan Del Mastro Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Donato (21), Connor Murphy (13)3–5
- P21:01Colton Dach Goal (2) Deflected, assists: Frank Nazar (9), Tyler Bertuzzi (14)2–5
- P118:57Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Tomas Hertl (23)1–5
- P116:54Tomas Hertl Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (51), Noah Hanifin (19)1–4
- P112:17Ivan Barbashev Goal (17) Tip-In, assists: Alex Pietrangelo (23), Victor Olofsson (11)1–3
- P18:57Nicolas Hague Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Brett Howden (12), Ivan Barbashev (20)1–2
- P16:58Nick Foligno Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Vlasic (20), Teuvo Teravainen (30)1–1
- P11:06Keegan Kolesar Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Brett Howden (11)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:06Keegan Kolesar Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Brett Howden (11)CHI 0 – 1 VGK · VGK 77% → 87% +10VGK 77% → 87%+10 pts
- P16:58Nick Foligno Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Vlasic (20), Teuvo Teravainen (30)CHI 1 – 1 VGK · CHI 14% → 24% +10CHI 14% → 24%+10 pts
- P18:57Nicolas Hague Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Brett Howden (12), Ivan Barbashev (20)CHI 1 – 2 VGK · VGK 75% → 86% +11VGK 75% → 86%+11 pts
- P112:17Ivan Barbashev Goal (17) Tip-In, assists: Alex Pietrangelo (23), Victor Olofsson (11)CHI 1 – 3 VGK · VGK 86% → 93% +7VGK 86% → 93%+7 pts
- P39:44Philipp Kurashev Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Craig Smith (6), Connor Murphy (15)CHI 5 – 6 VGK · CHI 2% → 12% +10CHI 2% → 12%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 77%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 88.6% of 44 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 77%
- ML CHI +320 / VGK -425
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 78%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 72%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.6 pts
- VGK: Elo 71.7%, market 77.3%
- Fair odds
- VGK -340
- CHI +340 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 2.4 – 4.1 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1397 | 1530 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | −5 | CHI: Petr Mrazek: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · VGK: Ilya Samsonov: team allows 0.12 more goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +162 Elo | VGK 71.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 79.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 78.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 77.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 3.37th of 32 |
| 30th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 2.87th of 32 |
| 31st of 32−0.9 | Margin | +0.56th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3243.9% | Shot share | 53.8%4th of 32 |
| 18th of 3289.9% | Save percentage | 89.9%17th of 32 |
| 31st of 322–8 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 31st of 326–23 | Road vs home | 20–96th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 31–27 | 32–26 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–3 | 22–24 |
| Underdog | 30–24 | 10–2 |
| Overs–unders | 30–28 | 27–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 2–2 VGK in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.