Minnesota Wild at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Jared SpurgeonGoals1
- Marcus JohanssonAssists2
- Jared SpurgeonPoints2
Kraken- Adam LarssonGoals1
- Jordan EberleAssists1
- Adam LarssonPoints1
Scoring summary
- P219:48Brandon Montour Goal (12) Slap Shot, assists: Jordan Eberle (7), Yanni Gourde (11)4–3
- P214:10Shane Wright Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Oliver Bjorkstrand (21), Kaapo Kakko (25)4–2
- P28:22Mats Zuccarello Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Marcus Johansson (17), Frederick Gaudreau (15)4–1
- P21:41Frederick Gaudreau Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Marcus Johansson (16), Jared Spurgeon (16)3–1
- P118:23Jared Spurgeon Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Hartman (11), Declan Chisholm (10)2–1
- P116:40Adam Larsson Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Kaapo Kakko (24), Jaden Schwartz (19)1–1
- P112:27Vincent Hinostroza Goal (4) Deflected, assists: Mats Zuccarello (26), Matt Boldy (32)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:27Vincent Hinostroza Goal (4) Deflected, assists: Mats Zuccarello (26), Matt Boldy (32)MIN 1 – 0 SEA · MIN 48% → 64% +16MIN 48% → 64%+16 pts
- P116:40Adam Larsson Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Kaapo Kakko (24), Jaden Schwartz (19)MIN 1 – 1 SEA · SEA 35% → 52% +17SEA 35% → 52%+17 pts
- P118:23Jared Spurgeon Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Hartman (11), Declan Chisholm (10)MIN 2 – 1 SEA · MIN 48% → 65% +17MIN 48% → 65%+17 pts
- P21:41Frederick Gaudreau Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Marcus Johansson (16), Jared Spurgeon (16)MIN 3 – 1 SEA · MIN 66% → 81% +15MIN 66% → 81%+15 pts
- P219:48Brandon Montour Goal (12) Slap Shot, assists: Jordan Eberle (7), Yanni Gourde (11)MIN 4 – 3 SEA · SEA 11% → 28% +17SEA 11% → 28%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kraken 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 52%
- ML MIN +100 / SEA -120
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.3 pts
- SEA: Elo 47.9%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- SEA -109
- MIN +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 2.7 – 2.8 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1461 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | +1 | MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) · SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +15 Elo | MIN 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 52.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.017th of 32 |
| 12th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.224th of 32 |
| 15th of 320.0 | Margin | −0.322nd of 32 |
| 28th of 3247.9% | Shot share | 48.2%26th of 32 |
| 6th of 3290.9% | Save percentage | 89.7%21st of 32 |
| 12th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3221–12 | Road vs home | 14–1827th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 30–31 | 31–30 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 15–18 | 8–12 |
| Underdog | 15–13 | 23–18 |
| Overs–unders | 29–32 | 30–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 2–2 SEA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.