Boston Bruins at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each period. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins
Wild- Frederick GaudreauGoals1
- Mats ZuccarelloAssists1
- Frederick GaudreauPoints1
Scoring summary
- P25:01Frederick Gaudreau Goal (13) Deflected, assists: Marcus Johansson (15), Mats Zuccarello (25)0–1
Turning points
The play that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P25:01Frederick Gaudreau Goal (13) Deflected, assists: Marcus Johansson (15), Mats Zuccarello (25)BOS 0 – 1 MIN · MIN 57% → 74% +17MIN 57% → 74%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Wild 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 59%
- ML BOS +135 / MIN -160
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.7 pts
- MIN: Elo 60.8%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- MIN -145
- BOS +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 2.5 – 3.0 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | BOS on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +2 | BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.00 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +77 Elo | MIN 60.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 61.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 61.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 2.921st of 32 |
| 22nd of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 2.913th of 32 |
| 27th of 32−0.4 | Margin | −0.115th of 32 |
| 21st of 3249.0% | Shot share | 47.9%28th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3289.6% | Save percentage | 90.8%8th of 32 |
| 27th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 26th of 3210–18 | Road vs home | 13–1425th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 28–33 | 30–30 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 10–20 | 15–17 |
| Underdog | 18–13 | 15–13 |
| Overs–unders | 30–31 | 29–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 1–2 MIN in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.