Boston Bruins at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- David PastrnakGoals1
- Pavel ZachaAssists2
- David PastrnakPoints2
Penguins- Kevin HayesAssists1
- Kevin HayesPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:38Rickard Rakell Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Bryan Rust (23), Sidney Crosby (44)3–2
- P319:19Charlie Coyle Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Zadorov (12)3–1
- P314:01Anthony Beauvillier Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Kevin Hayes (8)2–1
- P16:33Mason Lohrei Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Pavel Zacha (25), David Pastrnak (43)2–0
- P11:32David Pastrnak Goal (32) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Zacha (24), Morgan Geekie (13)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:32David Pastrnak Goal (32) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Zacha (24), Morgan Geekie (13)BOS 1 – 0 PIT · BOS 45% → 59% +15BOS 45% → 59%+15 pts
- P16:33Mason Lohrei Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Pavel Zacha (25), David Pastrnak (43)BOS 2 – 0 PIT · BOS 60% → 74% +14BOS 60% → 74%+14 pts
- P314:01Anthony Beauvillier Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Kevin Hayes (8)BOS 2 – 1 PIT · PIT 1% → 13% +12PIT 1% → 13%+12 pts
- P319:19Charlie Coyle Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Zadorov (12)BOS 3 – 1 PIT · BOS >99% → >99% +0BOS >99% → >99%+0 pts
- P319:38Rickard Rakell Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Bryan Rust (23), Sidney Crosby (44)BOS 3 – 2 PIT · PIT 0% → <1% +0PIT 0% → <1%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Penguins 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 55%
- ML BOS +115 / PIT -135
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.7 pts
- PIT: Elo 50.6%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- PIT -124
- BOS +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.1 – 3.4 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1456 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −6 | 0 | BOS: Joonas Korpisalo: team allows 0.15 more goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) · PIT: Alex Nedeljkovic: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +4 Elo | PIT 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 54.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 54.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 2.920th of 32 |
| 23rd of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.731st of 32 |
| 28th of 32−0.5 | Margin | −0.830th of 32 |
| 20th of 3249.1% | Shot share | 48.7%23rd of 32 |
| 25th of 3289.5% | Save percentage | 88.9%31st of 32 |
| 27th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 27th of 329–18 | Road vs home | 14–1626th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 27–33 | 30–31 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 10–20 | 4–9 |
| Underdog | 17–13 | 26–22 |
| Overs–unders | 30–30 | 33–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 2–2 PIT in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.