Pittsburgh Penguins at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins- Philip TomasinoGoals1
- Kris LetangAssists1
- Philip TomasinoPoints1
Flyers- Noah CatesGoals2
- Bobby BrinkAssists3
- Bobby BrinkPoints4
Scoring summary
- P36:06Owen Tippett Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Couturier (20), Matvei Michkov (24)1–6
- P219:05Bobby Brink Goal (8) Deflected, assists: Noah Cates (13), Tyson Foerster (12)1–5
- P218:55Noah Cates Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Bobby Brink (19), Tyson Foerster (11)1–4
- P211:55Tyson Foerster Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Jamie Drysdale (11), Bobby Brink (18)1–3
- P26:09Philip Tomasino Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Michael Bunting (15), Kris Letang (14)1–2
- P112:19Noah Cates Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Bobby Brink (17), Jakob Pelletier (8)0–2
- P13:56Rasmus Ristolainen Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Egor Zamula (10), Matvei Michkov (23)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:56Rasmus Ristolainen Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Egor Zamula (10), Matvei Michkov (23)PIT 0 – 1 PHI · PHI 52% → 67% +15PHI 52% → 67%+15 pts
- P112:19Noah Cates Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Bobby Brink (17), Jakob Pelletier (8)PIT 0 – 2 PHI · PHI 68% → 81% +13PHI 68% → 81%+13 pts
- P26:09Philip Tomasino Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Michael Bunting (15), Kris Letang (14)PIT 1 – 2 PHI · PIT 16% → 30% +14PIT 16% → 30%+14 pts
- P211:55Tyson Foerster Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Jamie Drysdale (11), Bobby Brink (18)PIT 1 – 3 PHI · PHI 72% → 87% +15PHI 72% → 87%+15 pts
- P218:55Noah Cates Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Bobby Brink (19), Tyson Foerster (11)PIT 1 – 4 PHI · PHI 90% → 97% +7PHI 90% → 97%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Flyers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 52%
- ML PIT +100 / PHI -120
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.5 pts
- PHI: Elo 55.7%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- PHI -109
- PIT +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 2.7 – 2.8 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1459 | 1462 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | +7 | PIT: Alex Nedeljkovic: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · PHI: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.16 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +40 Elo | PHI 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 57.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 57.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 322.9 | Goals scored | 2.920th of 32 |
| 31st of 323.6 | Goals allowed | 3.427th of 32 |
| 30th of 32−0.7 | Margin | −0.526th of 32 |
| 21st of 3249.0% | Shot share | 50.1%14th of 32 |
| 31st of 3289.0% | Save percentage | 88.4%32nd of 32 |
| 26th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 32 |
| 27th of 3210–20 | Road vs home | 14–1417th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 29–30 | 29–29 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 4–9 | 6–10 |
| Underdog | 25–21 | 23–19 |
| Overs–unders | 31–28 | 29–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 3–3 PHI in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.