New York Rangers at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Will CuylleGoals1
- K'Andre MillerAssists1
- Will CuyllePoints1
Penguins- Ryan SheaGoals2
- Evgeni MalkinAssists1
- Ryan SheaPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:53J.T. Miller Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Jimmy Vesey (2), Ryan Lindgren (15)5–3
- P311:26Adam Fox Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Reilly Smith (18), Mika Zibanejad (27)4–3
- P34:21Jimmy Vesey Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Vincent Trocheck (21), Ryan Lindgren (14)3–3
- P33:31Ryan Shea Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (42), Kevin Hayes (7)2–3
- P30:57Ryan Shea Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Evgeni Malkin (27), Erik Karlsson (34)2–2
- P217:00J.T. Miller Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Adam Fox (42), Artemi Panarin (36)2–1
- P119:12Will Cuylle Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: K'Andre Miller (10), Reilly Smith (17)1–1
- P112:53Evgeni Malkin Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Cody Glass (11), Danton Heinen (14)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P217:00J.T. Miller Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Adam Fox (42), Artemi Panarin (36)NYR 2 – 1 PIT · NYR 54% → 76% +21NYR 54% → 76%+21 pts
- P30:57Ryan Shea Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Evgeni Malkin (27), Erik Karlsson (34)NYR 2 – 2 PIT · PIT 23% → 46% +23PIT 23% → 46%+23 pts
- P33:31Ryan Shea Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (42), Kevin Hayes (7)NYR 2 – 3 PIT · PIT 46% → 73% +26PIT 46% → 73%+26 pts
- P34:21Jimmy Vesey Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Vincent Trocheck (21), Ryan Lindgren (14)NYR 3 – 3 PIT · NYR 27% → 54% +27NYR 27% → 54%+27 pts
- P311:26Adam Fox Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Reilly Smith (18), Mika Zibanejad (27)NYR 4 – 3 PIT · NYR 53% → 85% +32NYR 53% → 85%+32 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NYR 57%
- ML NYR -145 / PIT +125
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.5 pts
- NYR: Elo 53.6%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- NYR -133
- PIT +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYR 3.5 – 3.0 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1462 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | PIT and NYR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −5 | −14 | NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.11 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · PIT: Joel Blomqvist: team allows 0.36 more goals than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +25 Elo | NYR 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 54.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 54.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYR 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 2.921st of 32 |
| 22nd of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.631st of 32 |
| 17th of 32−0.2 | Margin | −0.730th of 32 |
| 20th of 3249.4% | Shot share | 48.7%23rd of 32 |
| 14th of 3290.1% | Save percentage | 89.1%30th of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 32 |
| 14th of 3213–15 | Road vs home | 13–1525th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYR |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 20–36 | 29–29 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 12–27 | 4–9 |
| Underdog | 8–9 | 25–20 |
| Overs–unders | 26–30 | 30–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYR 4–2 PIT in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.