New York Islanders at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders- Kyle PalmieriGoals1
- Jean-Gabriel PageauAssists1
- Kyle PalmieriPoints1
Bruins- David PastrnakGoals1
- Pavel ZachaAssists1
- David PastrnakPoints1
Scoring summary
- P310:04David Pastrnak Goal (31) Wrist Shot, assists: Parker Wotherspoon (2), Pavel Zacha (23)2–1
- P24:21Kyle Palmieri Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Nelson (21), Adam Pelech (15)2–0
- P116:11Alexander Romanov Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau (18), Ryan Pulock (14)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P116:11Alexander Romanov Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau (18), Ryan Pulock (14)NYI 1 – 0 BOS · NYI 52% → 68% +16NYI 52% → 68%+16 pts
- P24:21Kyle Palmieri Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Nelson (21), Adam Pelech (15)NYI 2 – 0 BOS · NYI 70% → 84% +14NYI 70% → 84%+14 pts
- P310:04David Pastrnak Goal (31) Wrist Shot, assists: Parker Wotherspoon (2), Pavel Zacha (23)NYI 2 – 1 BOS · BOS 3% → 18% +14BOS 3% → 18%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Islanders 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- NYI 52%
- ML NYI -120 / BOS +100
- Pre-line forecast
- NYI 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYI 42%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.3 pts
- NYI: Elo 41.9%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- NYI -109
- BOS +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 2.8 – 2.7 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1476 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | −2 | NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +57 Elo | BOS 58.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 52.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYI 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 2.825th of 32 |
| 16th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.223rd of 32 |
| 23rd of 32−0.3 | Margin | −0.527th of 32 |
| 11th of 3250.7% | Shot share | 48.8%23rd of 32 |
| 13th of 3290.4% | Save percentage | 89.5%25th of 32 |
| 12th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 20th of 3212–17 | Road vs home | 18–1414th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYI |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 28–29 | 26–33 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 7–20 | 10–20 |
| Underdog | 21–9 | 16–13 |
| Overs–unders | 30–27 | 30–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYI 2–3 BOS in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.