New York Rangers at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Jonny BrodzinskiGoals2
- Jonny BrodzinskiAssists1
- Jonny BrodzinskiPoints3
Islanders- Alexander RomanovGoals1
- Tony DeAngeloAssists1
- Alexander RomanovPoints1
Scoring summary
- P216:30Matt Rempe Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Jonny Brodzinski (5), Ryan Lindgren (17)5–1
- P211:21J.T. Miller Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (28), Urho Vaakanainen (8)4–1
- P119:12Jonny Brodzinski Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Fox (43), Ryan Lindgren (16)3–1
- P112:39Jonny Brodzinski Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Braden Schneider (11), Urho Vaakanainen (7)2–1
- P18:19Alexander Romanov Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Anthony DeAngelo (5), Brock Nelson (20)1–1
- P16:22Urho Vaakanainen Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Reilly Smith (19)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:22Urho Vaakanainen Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Reilly Smith (19)NYR 1 – 0 NYI · NYR 51% → 66% +15NYR 51% → 66%+15 pts
- P18:19Alexander Romanov Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Anthony DeAngelo (5), Brock Nelson (20)NYR 1 – 1 NYI · NYI 34% → 49% +15NYI 34% → 49%+15 pts
- P112:39Jonny Brodzinski Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Braden Schneider (11), Urho Vaakanainen (7)NYR 2 – 1 NYI · NYR 51% → 67% +16NYR 51% → 67%+16 pts
- P119:12Jonny Brodzinski Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Fox (43), Ryan Lindgren (16)NYR 3 – 1 NYI · NYR 68% → 82% +14NYR 68% → 82%+14 pts
- P211:21J.T. Miller Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (28), Urho Vaakanainen (8)NYR 4 – 1 NYI · NYR 86% → 95% +9NYR 86% → 95%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- NYR 51%
- ML NYR -115 / NYI -105
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.4 pts
- NYR: Elo 49.6%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- NYR -104
- NYI +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYR 2.8 – 2.7 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −4 | −2 | NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.10 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYI +3 Elo | NYI 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 52.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYR 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 2.824th of 32 |
| 21st of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.015th of 32 |
| 16th of 32−0.1 | Margin | −0.219th of 32 |
| 21st of 3249.1% | Shot share | 50.4%11th of 32 |
| 14th of 3290.2% | Save percentage | 90.6%10th of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 13th of 3214–15 | Road vs home | 13–1423rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYR |  NYI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 21–36 | 28–28 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 13–27 | 7–20 |
| Underdog | 8–9 | 21–8 |
| Overs–unders | 27–30 | 29–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYR 4–1 NYI in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 5.