Dallas Stars at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars- Jason RobertsonGoals3
- Matt DucheneAssists2
- Jason RobertsonPoints3
Islanders- Kyle PalmieriGoals1
- Tony DeAngeloAssists1
- Kyle PalmieriPoints1
Scoring summary
- P39:17Anthony Duclair Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Bo Horvat (22)4–3
- P217:28Jason Robertson Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (33), Matt Duchene (36)4–2
- P215:53Jason Robertson Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Roope Hintz (16), Matt Duchene (35)3–2
- P28:55Kyle Palmieri Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony DeAngelo (4), Brock Nelson (19)2–2
- P28:48Jason Robertson Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Roope Hintz (15), Mavrik Bourque (10)2–1
- P23:44Pierre Engvall Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Kyle MacLean (5), Marc Gatcomb (1)1–1
- P12:10Sam Steel Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Oskar Bäck (10), Cody Ceci (13)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P23:44Pierre Engvall Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Kyle MacLean (5), Marc Gatcomb (1)DAL 1 – 1 NYI · NYI 29% → 47% +18NYI 29% → 47%+18 pts
- P28:48Jason Robertson Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Roope Hintz (15), Mavrik Bourque (10)DAL 2 – 1 NYI · DAL 53% → 72% +19DAL 53% → 72%+19 pts
- P28:55Kyle Palmieri Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony DeAngelo (4), Brock Nelson (19)DAL 2 – 2 NYI · NYI 28% → 47% +19NYI 28% → 47%+19 pts
- P215:53Jason Robertson Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Roope Hintz (16), Matt Duchene (35)DAL 3 – 2 NYI · DAL 53% → 74% +21DAL 53% → 74%+21 pts
- P217:28Jason Robertson Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (33), Matt Duchene (36)DAL 4 – 2 NYI · DAL 75% → 90% +15DAL 75% → 90%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 54%
- ML DAL -130 / NYI +110
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.3 pts
- DAL: Elo 54.0%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- DAL -119
- NYI +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 2.9 – 2.6 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1571 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | DAL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +4 | −1 | DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +28 Elo | DAL 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 50.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 50.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 2.825th of 32 |
| 3rd of 322.5 | Goals allowed | 2.914th of 32 |
| 4th of 32+0.8 | Margin | −0.218th of 32 |
| 7th of 3252.5% | Shot share | 50.3%10th of 32 |
| 4th of 3291.2% | Save percentage | 90.7%10th of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 32 |
| 4th of 3216–11 | Road vs home | 13–1317th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  NYI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 26–30 | 27–28 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 22–26 | 7–20 |
| Underdog | 4–4 | 20–8 |
| Overs–unders | 23–33 | 28–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 1–2 NYI in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.