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Toronto Maple Leafs at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast

Final/OTESPN+, NESN

Away

Maple Leafs

36-20-2

5–4

at

Home

Bruins

27-24-8

TOR 59%BOS 41%

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TD Garden · ESPN+, NESN

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.

BOS favored TOR favored9 scoring plays
P1P2P3OTBOS50%TOR

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Maple Leafs
Bruins

Scoring summary

  • OT4:08Mitch Marner Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (27), Morgan Rielly (23)5–4
  • P319:14Pontus Holmberg Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Nicholas Robertson (5), Oliver Ekman-Larsson (21)4–4
  • P310:33David Pastrnak Goal (30) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–4
  • P36:40Nicholas Robertson Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Rielly (22), Anthony Stolarz (1)3–3
  • P30:59Mitch Marner Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: John Tavares (27), Morgan Rielly (21)2–3
  • P213:52Morgan Rielly Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Knies (16), Oliver Ekman-Larsson (20)1–3
  • P210:00Morgan Geekie Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Elias Lindholm (20), Brad Marchand (26)0–3
  • P113:59Brad Marchand Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (42), Mason Lohrei (24)0–2
  • P10:29David Pastrnak Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: Mason Lohrei (23), Pavel Zacha (22)0–1

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P30:59Mitch Marner Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: John Tavares (27), Morgan Rielly (21)TOR 2 – 3 BOS · TOR 12% → 30% +18
  2. P36:40Nicholas Robertson Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Rielly (22), Anthony Stolarz (1)TOR 3 – 3 BOS · TOR 25% → 54% +29
  3. P310:33David Pastrnak Goal (30) Wrist Shot, assists: noneTOR 3 – 4 BOS · BOS 46% → 80% +33
  4. P319:14Pontus Holmberg Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Nicholas Robertson (5), Oliver Ekman-Larsson (21)TOR 4 – 4 BOS · TOR <1% → 51% +51
  5. OT4:08Mitch Marner Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (27), Morgan Rielly (23)TOR 5 – 4 BOS · TOR 51% → >99% +49

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Maple Leafs 59%

LeanHit
TOR 59%BOS 41%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.

Market
TOR 59%
ML TOR -155 / BOS +135
Pre-line forecast
TOR 55%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
TOR 54%
Ratings vs. market
−5.3 pts
TOR: Elo 53.5%, market 58.8%
Fair odds
TOR -143
BOS +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
TOR 3.0 – 2.5 BOS
Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorTORBOSWhy
Team rating15361499Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies+220TOR: Anthony Stolarz: team allows 0.56 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) · BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.00 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsTOR +25 EloTOR 53.5%
Market-implied ratingsTOR 55.5%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastTOR 55.1%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastTOR 58.8%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
Toronto Maple Leafs and Boston Bruins compared, with each team's league rank
TORStatBOS
12th of 323.2Goals scored2.727th of 32
9th of 322.8Goals allowed3.224th of 32
11th of 32+0.3Margin−0.425th of 32
18th of 3249.7%Shot share48.7%23rd of 32
7th of 3291.1%Save percentage89.7%24th of 32
6th of 326–4Last 104–621st of 32
6th of 3215–11Road vs home18–1312th of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

Maple LeafsBruins
145015001550league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonTORBOS
Puck line30–2725–33
Last 106–46–4
Favorite20–2310–20
Underdog10–415–13
Overs–unders28–2929–29
Overs–unders, last 105–55–5

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

TOR 5–9 BOS in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 14.