Philadelphia Flyers at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Matvei MichkovGoals2
- Matvei MichkovAssists1
- Matvei MichkovPoints3
Penguins- Evgeni MalkinGoals2
- Evgeni MalkinAssists2
- Evgeni MalkinPoints4
Scoring summary
- OT1:03Evgeni Malkin Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Kris Letang (15), Erik Karlsson (35)4–5
- P32:30Evgeni Malkin Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Anthony Beauvillier (7), Ryan Graves (1)4–4
- P218:17Erik Karlsson Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Grzelcyk (28), Evgeni Malkin (29)4–3
- P211:05Matvei Michkov Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrei Kuzmenko (13), Travis Konecny (41)4–2
- P29:35Erik Karlsson Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (43)3–2
- P29:05Philip Tomasino Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Evgeni Malkin (28), Danton Heinen (15)3–1
- P27:24Matvei Michkov Goal (18) Backhand, assists: Owen Tippett (17), Rasmus Ristolainen (15)3–0
- P21:44Owen Tippett Goal (18) Slap Shot, assists: Nick Seeler (11), Matvei Michkov (25)2–0
- P12:00Noah Cates Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Bobby Brink (20), Egor Zamula (11)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P29:35Erik Karlsson Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (43)PHI 3 – 2 PIT · PIT 16% → 31% +15PIT 16% → 31%+15 pts
- P211:05Matvei Michkov Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrei Kuzmenko (13), Travis Konecny (41)PHI 4 – 2 PIT · PHI 69% → 85% +16PHI 69% → 85%+16 pts
- P218:17Erik Karlsson Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Grzelcyk (28), Evgeni Malkin (29)PHI 4 – 3 PIT · PIT 12% → 28% +16PIT 12% → 28%+16 pts
- P32:30Evgeni Malkin Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Anthony Beauvillier (7), Ryan Graves (1)PHI 4 – 4 PIT · PIT 25% → 51% +25PIT 25% → 51%+25 pts
- OT1:03Evgeni Malkin Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Kris Letang (15), Erik Karlsson (35)PHI 4 – 5 PIT · PIT 50% → 92% +42PIT 50% → 92%+42 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Penguins 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 51%
- ML PHI -105 / PIT -115
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.2 pts
- PIT: Elo 52.3%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- PIT -104
- PHI +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 2.7 – 2.8 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1466 | 1454 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +8 | +1 | PHI: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.19 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) · PIT: Alex Nedeljkovic: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +16 Elo | PIT 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 55.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 55.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 2.922nd of 32 |
| 27th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.731st of 32 |
| 25th of 32−0.4 | Margin | −0.830th of 32 |
| 12th of 3250.3% | Shot share | 48.8%22nd of 32 |
| 32nd of 3288.5% | Save percentage | 88.9%31st of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 32 |
| 25th of 3211–19 | Road vs home | 13–1627th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 30–29 | 29–31 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–10 | 4–9 |
| Underdog | 23–19 | 25–22 |
| Overs–unders | 30–29 | 32–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 4–3 PIT in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.