Minnesota Wild at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Mats ZuccarelloGoals1
- Marcus JohanssonAssists1
- Mats ZuccarelloPoints1
Avalanche- Ross ColtonGoals2
- Ross ColtonAssists1
- Ross ColtonPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:52Ross Colton Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Devon Toews (22), Mackenzie Blackwood (1)2–5
- P214:39Ross Colton Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Oliver Kylington (3), Joel Kiviranta (6)2–4
- P29:49Jack Drury Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Cale Makar (45), Ross Colton (5)2–3
- P28:57Jonathan Drouin Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Oliver Kylington (2)2–2
- P117:42Vincent Hinostroza Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Brock Faber (17), Marco Rossi (30)2–1
- P113:58Valeri Nichushkin Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (68), Martin Necas (48)1–1
- P14:14Mats Zuccarello Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Marcus Johansson (14)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:14Mats Zuccarello Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Marcus Johansson (14)MIN 1 – 0 COL · MIN 27% → 40% +14MIN 27% → 40%+14 pts
- P113:58Valeri Nichushkin Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (68), Martin Necas (48)MIN 1 – 1 COL · COL 56% → 71% +15COL 56% → 71%+15 pts
- P117:42Vincent Hinostroza Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Brock Faber (17), Marco Rossi (30)MIN 2 – 1 COL · MIN 29% → 46% +16MIN 29% → 46%+16 pts
- P28:57Jonathan Drouin Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Oliver Kylington (2)MIN 2 – 2 COL · COL 48% → 68% +20COL 48% → 68%+20 pts
- P29:49Jack Drury Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Cale Makar (45), Ross Colton (5)MIN 2 – 3 COL · COL 68% → 83% +16COL 68% → 83%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- COL 74%
- ML MIN +270 / COL -340
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.7 pts
- COL: Elo 63.4%, market 74.1%
- Fair odds
- COL -286
- MIN +286 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 2.5 – 4.0 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1540 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | MIN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +4 | +4 | MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) · COL: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +95 Elo | COL 63.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 71.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 69.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 74.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.211th of 32 |
| 12th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.017th of 32 |
| 14th of 320.0 | Margin | +0.212th of 32 |
| 27th of 3248.0% | Shot share | 52.9%5th of 32 |
| 8th of 3290.8% | Save percentage | 89.7%19th of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3221–11 | Road vs home | 17–1212th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 30–29 | 24–36 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 15–17 | 18–30 |
| Underdog | 15–12 | 6–6 |
| Overs–unders | 28–31 | 30–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 1–5 COL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.