Seattle Kraken at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken- Vince DunnGoals1
- Adam LarssonAssists1
- Jaden SchwartzPoints1
Blues- Zack BolducGoals2
- Cam FowlerAssists2
- Cam FowlerPoints3
Scoring summary
- P312:09Jaden Schwartz Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Kaapo Kakko (23), Adam Larsson (12)2–7
- P35:13Vince Dunn Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–7
- P30:20Zack Bolduc Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Mathieu Joseph (5), Oskar Sundqvist (9)0–7
- P211:55Jake Neighbours Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Cam Fowler (15), Colton Parayko (19)0–6
- P29:45Cam Fowler Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Holloway (25), Brayden Schenn (22)0–5
- P28:23Zack Bolduc Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Oskar Sundqvist (8), Justin Faulk (20)0–4
- P25:10Robert Thomas Goal (16) Batted, assists: Jake Neighbours (13), Philip Broberg (14)0–3
- P112:48Oskar Sundqvist Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Buchnevich (27), Robert Thomas (31)0–2
- P18:04Jordan Kyrou Goal (24) Snap Shot, assists: Cam Fowler (14), Colton Parayko (18)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:04Jordan Kyrou Goal (24) Snap Shot, assists: Cam Fowler (14), Colton Parayko (18)SEA 0 – 1 STL · STL 56% → 70% +15STL 56% → 70%+15 pts
- P112:48Oskar Sundqvist Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Buchnevich (27), Robert Thomas (31)SEA 0 – 2 STL · STL 71% → 83% +12STL 71% → 83%+12 pts
- P25:10Robert Thomas Goal (16) Batted, assists: Jake Neighbours (13), Philip Broberg (14)SEA 0 – 3 STL · STL 86% → 94% +8STL 86% → 94%+8 pts
- P28:23Zack Bolduc Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Oskar Sundqvist (8), Justin Faulk (20)SEA 0 – 4 STL · STL 95% → 98% +4STL 95% → 98%+4 pts
- P29:45Cam Fowler Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Holloway (25), Brayden Schenn (22)SEA 0 – 5 STL · STL 98% → >99% +1STL 98% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blues 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- STL 56%
- ML SEA +120 / STL -140
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.1 pts
- STL: Elo 57.3%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- STL -128
- SEA +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 2.6 – 2.9 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1461 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | +1 | SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) · STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +51 Elo | STL 57.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 56.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 56.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 2.825th of 32 |
| 23rd of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.018th of 32 |
| 23rd of 32−0.3 | Margin | −0.324th of 32 |
| 26th of 3248.3% | Shot share | 48.4%24th of 32 |
| 17th of 3289.9% | Save percentage | 90.0%16th of 32 |
| 19th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 32 |
| 18th of 3212–16 | Road vs home | 13–1727th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 30–29 | 32–26 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–12 | 4–10 |
| Underdog | 23–17 | 28–16 |
| Overs–unders | 28–31 | 25–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 0–4 STL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.