Vancouver Canucks at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks- Filip ChytilGoals1
- Marcus PetterssonAssists1
- Filip ChytilPoints1
Kraken- Eeli TolvanenGoals2
- Shane WrightAssists2
- Eeli TolvanenPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:29Eeli Tolvanen Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Vince Dunn (17)3–6
- P35:38Brandon Montour Goal (11) Slap Shot, assists: Jared McCann (29), Jordan Eberle (6)3–5
- P213:08Eeli Tolvanen Goal (17) Tip-In, assists: Ryker Evans (17), Chandler Stephenson (31)3–4
- P212:08Matty Beniers Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Vince Dunn (16)3–3
- P28:05Dakota Joshua Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Drew O'Connor (12)3–2
- P24:11Oliver Bjorkstrand Goal (16) Tip-In, assists: Brandon Montour (19), Shane Wright (23)2–2
- P116:27Filip Chytil Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Myers (17), Marcus Pettersson (16)2–1
- P111:35Pius Suter Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–1
- P15:47Andre Burakovsky Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Shane Wright (22)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P116:27Filip Chytil Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Myers (17), Marcus Pettersson (16)VAN 2 – 1 SEA · VAN 50% → 67% +17VAN 50% → 67%+17 pts
- P24:11Oliver Bjorkstrand Goal (16) Tip-In, assists: Brandon Montour (19), Shane Wright (23)VAN 2 – 2 SEA · SEA 32% → 50% +18SEA 32% → 50%+18 pts
- P28:05Dakota Joshua Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Drew O'Connor (12)VAN 3 – 2 SEA · VAN 50% → 69% +19VAN 50% → 69%+19 pts
- P212:08Matty Beniers Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Vince Dunn (16)VAN 3 – 3 SEA · SEA 30% → 50% +20SEA 30% → 50%+20 pts
- P213:08Eeli Tolvanen Goal (17) Tip-In, assists: Ryker Evans (17), Chandler Stephenson (31)VAN 3 – 4 SEA · SEA 50% → 71% +21SEA 50% → 71%+21 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kraken 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 50%
- ML VAN -110 / SEA -110
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.4 pts
- SEA: Elo 48.6%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- SEA -100
- VAN -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 2.8 – 2.8 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1456 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +2 | VAN: Kevin Lankinen: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) · SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VAN +9 Elo | VAN 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 51.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 2.918th of 32 |
| 19th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.324th of 32 |
| 22nd of 32−0.3 | Margin | −0.424th of 32 |
| 26th of 3248.3% | Shot share | 48.3%25th of 32 |
| 24th of 3289.6% | Save percentage | 89.7%22nd of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 32 |
| 10th of 3216–15 | Road vs home | 13–1828th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VAN |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 26–33 | 30–30 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 7–20 | 7–12 |
| Underdog | 19–13 | 23–18 |
| Overs–unders | 27–32 | 29–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VAN 2–3 SEA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.