Seattle Kraken at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken- Jordan EberleGoals1
- Adam LarssonAssists1
- Jordan EberlePoints1
Capitals- Connor McMichaelGoals1
- John CarlsonAssists2
- Connor McMichaelPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:31Alex Ovechkin Goal (33) Backhand, assists: Tom Wilson (23), Nic Dowd (11)2–4
- P315:44Connor McMichael Goal (23) Tip-In, assists: John Carlson (38), Jakob Chychrun (23)2–3
- P27:23Jordan Eberle Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Chandler Stephenson (32), Eeli Tolvanen (11)2–2
- P22:51Dylan Strome Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Sandin (20), John Carlson (37)1–2
- P20:35Martin Fehervary Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Aliaksei Protas (30), Connor McMichael (27)1–1
- P112:37Shane Wright Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Andre Burakovsky (18), Adam Larsson (14)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:37Shane Wright Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Andre Burakovsky (18), Adam Larsson (14)SEA 1 – 0 WSH · SEA 35% → 51% +16SEA 35% → 51%+16 pts
- P20:35Martin Fehervary Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Aliaksei Protas (30), Connor McMichael (27)SEA 1 – 1 WSH · WSH 46% → 64% +18WSH 46% → 64%+18 pts
- P22:51Dylan Strome Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Sandin (20), John Carlson (37)SEA 1 – 2 WSH · WSH 63% → 79% +16WSH 63% → 79%+16 pts
- P27:23Jordan Eberle Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Chandler Stephenson (32), Eeli Tolvanen (11)SEA 2 – 2 WSH · SEA 21% → 37% +17SEA 21% → 37%+17 pts
- P315:44Connor McMichael Goal (23) Tip-In, assists: John Carlson (38), Jakob Chychrun (23)SEA 2 – 3 WSH · WSH 55% → 93% +39WSH 55% → 93%+39 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Capitals 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 67%
- ML SEA +190 / WSH -225
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.9 pts
- WSH: Elo 69.6%, market 66.8%
- Fair odds
- WSH -201
- SEA +201 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 2.3 – 3.2 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1461 | 1553 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | SEA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +1 | −12 | SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · WSH: Charlie Lindgren: team allows 0.29 more goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +144 Elo | WSH 69.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 68.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 68.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 66.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.61st of 32 |
| 24th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 2.63rd of 32 |
| 21st of 32−0.3 | Margin | +1.02nd of 32 |
| 25th of 3248.5% | Shot share | 50.4%12th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3289.6% | Save percentage | 90.9%6th of 32 |
| 19th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 20th of 3213–18 | Road vs home | 20–1312th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 32–32 | 38–25 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 8–13 | 16–19 |
| Underdog | 24–19 | 22–6 |
| Overs–unders | 32–32 | 31–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 1–2 WSH in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.