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Washington Capitals at New York Rangers, NHL forecast

Final/OTTNT, truTV, HBO Max, MSG

Away

Capitals

40-14-8

3–2

at

Home

Rangers

31-26-5

WSH 49%NYR 51%

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Madison Square Garden · TNT, truTV, HBO Max, MSG

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.

NYR favored WSH favored5 scoring plays
P1P2P3OTNYR50%WSH

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Capitals
Rangers

Scoring summary

  • OT4:07Tom Wilson Goal (28) Tip-In, assists: Dylan Strome (43)3–2
  • P310:28Alex Ovechkin Goal (32) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrew Mangiapane (10), Ethen Frank (3)2–2
  • P28:05Sam Carrick Goal (6) Backhand, assists: K'Andre Miller (11), Will Borgen (6)1–2
  • P113:37Artemi Panarin Goal (26) Tip-In, assists: Zac Jones (9), Alexis Lafrenière (21)1–1
  • P11:04Pierre-Luc Dubois Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Tom Wilson (21)1–0

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P11:04Pierre-Luc Dubois Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Tom Wilson (21)WSH 1 – 0 NYR · WSH 49% → 63% +14
  2. P113:37Artemi Panarin Goal (26) Tip-In, assists: Zac Jones (9), Alexis Lafrenière (21)WSH 1 – 1 NYR · NYR 35% → 51% +16
  3. P28:05Sam Carrick Goal (6) Backhand, assists: K'Andre Miller (11), Will Borgen (6)WSH 1 – 2 NYR · NYR 51% → 70% +19
  4. P310:28Alex Ovechkin Goal (32) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrew Mangiapane (10), Ethen Frank (3)WSH 2 – 2 NYR · WSH 18% → 50% +32
  5. OT4:07Tom Wilson Goal (28) Tip-In, assists: Dylan Strome (43)WSH 3 – 2 NYR · WSH 50% → >99% +50

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Rangers 51%

Toss-upMiss
WSH 49%NYR 51%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.

Market
NYR 51%
ML WSH -105 / NYR -115
Pre-line forecast
NYR 53%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
NYR 54%
Ratings vs. market
+3.1 pts
NYR: Elo 54.2%, market 51.1%
Fair odds
NYR -104
WSH +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
WSH 2.7 – 2.8 NYR
Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorWSHNYRWhy
Team rating15471527Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies−13+1WSH: Charlie Lindgren: team allows 0.34 more goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) · NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsNYR +29 EloNYR 54.2%
Market-implied ratingsNYR 53.2%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastNYR 53.4%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastNYR 51.1%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
Washington Capitals and New York Rangers compared, with each team's league rank
WSHStatNYR
1st of 323.6Goals scored3.113th of 32
5th of 322.6Goals allowed3.018th of 32
2nd of 32+1.0Margin+0.114th of 32
16th of 3250.1%Shot share49.2%20th of 32
7th of 3290.9%Save percentage90.5%12th of 32
12th of 325–5Last 107–34th of 32
1st of 3220–9Road vs home16–1516th of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

CapitalsRangers
1450150015501600league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonWSHNYR
Puck line36–2525–36
Last 103–76–4
Favorite15–1916–27
Underdog21–69–9
Overs–unders30–3128–33
Overs–unders, last 108–24–6

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

WSH 4–6 NYR in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.