Toronto Maple Leafs at New York Rangers, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- Oliver Ekman-LarssonGoals1
- Morgan RiellyAssists1
- Oliver Ekman-LarssonPoints1
Rangers- Will CuylleGoals1
- Will BorgenAssists1
- Will CuyllePoints1
Scoring summary
- P36:21Matthew Knies Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (28), Mitch Marner (56)3–2
- P33:47Will Cuylle Goal (16) Backhand, assists: Mika Zibanejad (29)2–2
- P20:51William Nylander Goal (34) Poke, assists: none2–1
- P113:08Mika Zibanejad Goal (13) Tip-In, assists: Will Borgen (5), J.T. Miller (31)1–1
- P11:47Oliver Ekman-Larsson Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Max Domi (20), Morgan Rielly (24)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:47Oliver Ekman-Larsson Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Max Domi (20), Morgan Rielly (24)TOR 1 – 0 NYR · TOR 52% → 66% +14TOR 52% → 66%+14 pts
- P113:08Mika Zibanejad Goal (13) Tip-In, assists: Will Borgen (5), J.T. Miller (31)TOR 1 – 1 NYR · NYR 32% → 48% +16NYR 32% → 48%+16 pts
- P20:51William Nylander Goal (34) Poke, assists: noneTOR 2 – 1 NYR · TOR 52% → 69% +17TOR 52% → 69%+17 pts
- P33:47Will Cuylle Goal (16) Backhand, assists: Mika Zibanejad (29)TOR 2 – 2 NYR · NYR 23% → 49% +26NYR 23% → 49%+26 pts
- P36:21Matthew Knies Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (28), Mitch Marner (56)TOR 3 – 2 NYR · TOR 51% → 79% +28TOR 51% → 79%+28 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Maple Leafs 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 52%
- ML TOR -120 / NYR +100
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.9 pts
- TOR: Elo 50.3%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- TOR -109
- NYR +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.3 – 3.2 NYR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | NYR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1538 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +18 | −2 | TOR: Anthony Stolarz: team allows 0.45 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) · NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +2 Elo | TOR 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 52.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 3.113th of 32 |
| 9th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.121st of 32 |
| 9th of 32+0.3 | Margin | −0.115th of 32 |
| 19th of 3249.6% | Shot share | 48.8%22nd of 32 |
| 4th of 3291.1% | Save percentage | 90.3%14th of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 4th of 3216–11 | Road vs home | 14–1418th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  NYR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 30–28 | 22–36 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 20–24 | 14–27 |
| Underdog | 10–4 | 8–9 |
| Overs–unders | 29–29 | 28–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 2–2 NYR in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.