New York Islanders at New York Rangers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders
Rangers- Artemi PanarinGoals1
- Artemi PanarinAssists1
- Artemi PanarinPoints2
Scoring summary
- P314:51Artemi Panarin Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexis Lafrenière (20), Vincent Trocheck (22)0–4
- P33:43J.T. Miller Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Artemi Panarin (38)0–3
- P119:15Will Borgen Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Carrick (12), Will Cuylle (16)0–2
- P115:03Will Cuylle Goal (17) Deflected, assists: Zac Jones (8), J.T. Miller (33)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P115:03Will Cuylle Goal (17) Deflected, assists: Zac Jones (8), J.T. Miller (33)NYI 0 – 1 NYR · NYR 49% → 65% +16NYR 49% → 65%+16 pts
- P119:15Will Borgen Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Carrick (12), Will Cuylle (16)NYI 0 – 2 NYR · NYR 66% → 81% +14NYR 66% → 81%+14 pts
- P33:43J.T. Miller Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Artemi Panarin (38)NYI 0 – 3 NYR · NYR 92% → 98% +6NYR 92% → 98%+6 pts
- P314:51Artemi Panarin Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexis Lafrenière (20), Vincent Trocheck (22)NYI 0 – 4 NYR · NYR >99% → >99% +0NYR >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Islanders 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- NYI 51%
- ML NYI -115 / NYR -105
- Pre-line forecast
- NYI 45%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYI 44%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.5 pts
- NYI: Elo 43.6%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- NYI -104
- NYR +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 2.8 – 2.7 NYR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | NYR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | NYR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −2 | −2 | NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +45 Elo | NYR 56.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 55.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYI 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.013th of 32 |
| 16th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.019th of 32 |
| 19th of 32−0.2 | Margin | 0.014th of 32 |
| 12th of 3250.5% | Shot share | 49.1%21st of 32 |
| 12th of 3290.5% | Save percentage | 90.4%13th of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 32 |
| 18th of 3213–17 | Road vs home | 15–1517th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYI |  NYR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 29–30 | 24–36 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 8–21 | 15–27 |
| Underdog | 21–9 | 9–9 |
| Overs–unders | 31–28 | 28–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYI 1–5 NYR in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 6.