Nashville Predators at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators- Cole SmithGoals2
- Colton SissonsAssists2
- Colton SissonsPoints3
Islanders- Casey CizikasGoals1
- Simon HolmstromAssists2
- Casey CizikasPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:48Ilya Sorokin Goal (1) , assists: none4–7
- P318:56Cole Smith Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Tommy Novak (9), Nick Blankenburg (5)4–6
- P35:51Cole Smith Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Marc Del Gaizo (4), Colton Sissons (12)3–6
- P35:21Casey Cizikas Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Hudson Fasching (1), Jean-Gabriel Pageau (19)2–6
- P216:21Brock Nelson Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexander Romanov (14), Simon Holmstrom (18)2–5
- P24:58Marc Del Gaizo Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Colton Sissons (11), Ryan O'Reilly (22)2–4
- P22:38Brock Nelson Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Simon Holmstrom (17)1–4
- P21:03Colton Sissons Goal (7) Backhand, assists: none1–3
- P119:31Bo Horvat Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Anders Lee (19)0–3
- P112:27Kyle Palmieri Goal (19) Backhand, assists: Adam Boqvist (6), Brock Nelson (22)0–2
- P12:37Jean-Gabriel Pageau Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Casey Cizikas (6), Adam Boqvist (5)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:37Jean-Gabriel Pageau Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Casey Cizikas (6), Adam Boqvist (5)NSH 0 – 1 NYI · NYI 57% → 71% +14NYI 57% → 71%+14 pts
- P112:27Kyle Palmieri Goal (19) Backhand, assists: Adam Boqvist (6), Brock Nelson (22)NSH 0 – 2 NYI · NYI 72% → 84% +12NYI 72% → 84%+12 pts
- P119:31Bo Horvat Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Anders Lee (19)NSH 0 – 3 NYI · NYI 85% → 93% +8NYI 85% → 93%+8 pts
- P21:03Colton Sissons Goal (7) Backhand, assists: noneNSH 1 – 3 NYI · NSH 7% → 15% +8NSH 7% → 15%+8 pts
- P22:38Brock Nelson Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Simon Holmstrom (17)NSH 1 – 4 NYI · NYI 86% → 94% +8NYI 86% → 94%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Islanders 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NYI 57%
- ML NSH +125 / NYI -145
- Pre-line forecast
- NYI 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYI 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.6 pts
- NYI: Elo 56.6%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- NYI -133
- NSH +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NSH 2.5 – 3.0 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1469 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | −1 | NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYI +46 Elo | NYI 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 57.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYI 57.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYI 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 322.6 | Goals scored | 2.727th of 32 |
| 26th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.015th of 32 |
| 29th of 32−0.7 | Margin | −0.221st of 32 |
| 14th of 3250.2% | Shot share | 50.4%12th of 32 |
| 18th of 3289.8% | Save percentage | 90.5%10th of 32 |
| 27th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 32 |
| 30th of 326–22 | Road vs home | 13–1526th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NSH |  NYI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 23–35 | 28–30 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 9–25 | 7–21 |
| Underdog | 14–10 | 21–9 |
| Overs–unders | 24–34 | 30–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NSH 1–1 NYI in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.