Winnipeg Jets at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Neal PionkGoals1
- Alex IafalloAssists1
- Neal PionkPoints1
Predators- Ryan O'ReillyAssists1
- Ryan O'ReillyPoints1
Scoring summary
- P115:29Tommy Novak Goal (12) Slap Shot, assists: Justin Barron (4), Luke Evangelista (11)1–2
- P111:05Neal Pionk Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Rasmus Kupari (3), Alex Iafallo (12)1–1
- P14:26Filip Forsberg Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Gustav Nyquist (12), Ryan O'Reilly (21)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:26Filip Forsberg Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Gustav Nyquist (12), Ryan O'Reilly (21)WPG 0 – 1 NSH · NSH 46% → 61% +15NSH 46% → 61%+15 pts
- P111:05Neal Pionk Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Rasmus Kupari (3), Alex Iafallo (12)WPG 1 – 1 NSH · WPG 38% → 54% +16WPG 38% → 54%+16 pts
- P115:29Tommy Novak Goal (12) Slap Shot, assists: Justin Barron (4), Luke Evangelista (11)WPG 1 – 2 NSH · NSH 46% → 63% +17NSH 46% → 63%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- WPG 54%
- ML WPG -130 / NSH +110
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 44%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.2 pts
- WPG: Elo 55.5%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- WPG -119
- NSH +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 2.9 – 2.6 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1585 | 1466 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | WPG on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −20 | −4 | WPG: Eric Comrie: team allows 0.49 more goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) · NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.10 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +38 Elo | WPG 55.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NSH 58.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NSH 55.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WPG 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 323.6 | Goals scored | 2.630th of 32 |
| 1st of 322.4 | Goals allowed | 3.326th of 32 |
| 1st of 32+1.2 | Margin | −0.729th of 32 |
| 10th of 3250.7% | Shot share | 50.1%16th of 32 |
| 1st of 3292.2% | Save percentage | 89.7%24th of 32 |
| 1st of 3210–0 | Last 10 | 2–830th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3219–9 | Road vs home | 14–1522nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WPG |  NSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 33–26 | 22–35 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 23–20 | 9–25 |
| Underdog | 10–6 | 13–10 |
| Overs–unders | 29–30 | 24–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WPG 4–3 NSH in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.