Winnipeg Jets at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Mark ScheifeleGoals1
- Gabriel VilardiAssists1
- Mark ScheifelePoints1
Senators- Thomas ChabotGoals1
- Tim StutzleAssists1
- Thomas ChabotPoints1
Scoring summary
- P317:04Mark Scheifele Goal (33) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (42)4–1
- P28:53Thomas Chabot Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Tim Stützle (41)3–1
- P28:04Kyle Connor Goal (31) Snap Shot, assists: Gabriel Vilardi (28), Dylan DeMelo (11)3–0
- P19:03Mason Appleton Goal (8) , assists: none2–0
- P17:46Cole Perfetti Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (33)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:46Cole Perfetti Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (33)WPG 1 – 0 OTT · WPG 57% → 71% +15WPG 57% → 71%+15 pts
- P19:03Mason Appleton Goal (8) , assists: noneWPG 2 – 0 OTT · WPG 71% → 83% +12WPG 71% → 83%+12 pts
- P28:04Kyle Connor Goal (31) Snap Shot, assists: Gabriel Vilardi (28), Dylan DeMelo (11)WPG 3 – 0 OTT · WPG 87% → 95% +8WPG 87% → 95%+8 pts
- P28:53Thomas Chabot Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Tim Stützle (41)WPG 3 – 1 OTT · OTT 5% → 13% +8OTT 5% → 13%+8 pts
- P317:04Mark Scheifele Goal (33) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (42)WPG 4 – 1 OTT · WPG >99% → >99% +0WPG >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- WPG 57%
- ML WPG -145 / OTT +125
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.1 pts
- WPG: Elo 58.3%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- WPG -133
- OTT +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 3.0 – 2.5 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1582 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +12 | +4 | WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.29 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · OTT: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +58 Elo | WPG 58.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 51.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WPG 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 323.6 | Goals scored | 2.823rd of 32 |
| 1st of 322.4 | Goals allowed | 2.88th of 32 |
| 1st of 32+1.2 | Margin | 0.015th of 32 |
| 11th of 3250.5% | Shot share | 51.5%9th of 32 |
| 1st of 3292.1% | Save percentage | 90.5%10th of 32 |
| 1st of 3210–0 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3218–9 | Road vs home | 16–1010th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WPG |  OTT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 32–26 | 24–33 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 22–20 | 8–22 |
| Underdog | 10–6 | 16–11 |
| Overs–unders | 29–29 | 24–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WPG 2–1 OTT in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.