Nashville Predators at New York Rangers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators
Rangers- Artemi PanarinGoals1
- Artemi PanarinAssists1
- Artemi PanarinPoints2
Scoring summary
- P316:57Brett Berard Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Carrick (11)0–4
- P23:25K'Andre Miller Goal (5) Backhand, assists: J.T. Miller (32), Mika Zibanejad (31)0–3
- P21:02J.T. Miller Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Artemi Panarin (37), Mika Zibanejad (30)0–2
- P18:32Artemi Panarin Goal (24) Slap Shot, assists: Alexis Lafrenière (19), Calvin de Haan (8)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:32Artemi Panarin Goal (24) Slap Shot, assists: Alexis Lafrenière (19), Calvin de Haan (8)NSH 0 – 1 NYR · NYR 60% → 74% +14NYR 60% → 74%+14 pts
- P21:02J.T. Miller Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Artemi Panarin (37), Mika Zibanejad (30)NSH 0 – 2 NYR · NYR 75% → 87% +12NYR 75% → 87%+12 pts
- P23:25K'Andre Miller Goal (5) Backhand, assists: J.T. Miller (32), Mika Zibanejad (31)NSH 0 – 3 NYR · NYR 87% → 95% +7NYR 87% → 95%+7 pts
- P316:57Brett Berard Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Carrick (11)NSH 0 – 4 NYR · NYR >99% → >99% +0NYR >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- NYR 61%
- ML NSH +145 / NYR -170
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.0 pts
- NYR: Elo 62.7%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- NYR -154
- NSH +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NSH 2.9 – 3.6 NYR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | NYR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1465 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −4 | −3 | NSH: Justus Annunen: team allows 0.10 more goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) · NYR: Jonathan Quick: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +90 Elo | NYR 62.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 59.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 60.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYR 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 3.014th of 32 |
| 27th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.120th of 32 |
| 29th of 32−0.7 | Margin | −0.116th of 32 |
| 14th of 3250.2% | Shot share | 49.1%21st of 32 |
| 24th of 3289.6% | Save percentage | 90.3%14th of 32 |
| 26th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 31st of 326–23 | Road vs home | 14–1523rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NSH |  NYR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 23–36 | 23–36 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 9–25 | 14–27 |
| Underdog | 14–11 | 9–9 |
| Overs–unders | 25–34 | 28–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NSH 2–1 NYR in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.