Ottawa Senators at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- Shane PintoGoals2
- Tim StutzleAssists2
- Shane PintoPoints2
Capitals- Pierre-Luc DuboisGoals1
- Pierre-Luc DuboisAssists2
- Pierre-Luc DuboisPoints3
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Dylan Strome Goal Backhand0–1
- P318:52Brady Tkachuk Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Tim Stützle (44), Jake Sanderson (34)4–4
- P312:43Martin Fehervary Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Tom Wilson (20), Aliaksei Protas (28)3–4
- P38:01Shane Pinto Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Michael Amadio (10), Thomas Chabot (25)3–3
- P31:05Claude Giroux Goal (12) Slap Shot, assists: Jake Sanderson (33), Tim Stützle (43)2–3
- P212:18Shane Pinto Goal (13) Tip-In, assists: Jake Sanderson (32), Claude Giroux (27)1–3
- P26:53Tom Wilson Goal (27) Slap Shot, assists: Pierre-Luc Dubois (37), Dylan Strome (42)0–3
- P13:34Pierre-Luc Dubois Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McMichael (25), Rasmus Sandin (18)0–2
- P11:41Connor McMichael Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Martin Fehervary (14), Pierre-Luc Dubois (36)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:41Connor McMichael Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Martin Fehervary (14), Pierre-Luc Dubois (36)OTT 0 – 1 WSH · WSH 57% → 71% +14WSH 57% → 71%+14 pts
- P31:05Claude Giroux Goal (12) Slap Shot, assists: Jake Sanderson (33), Tim Stützle (43)OTT 2 – 3 WSH · OTT 8% → 23% +15OTT 8% → 23%+15 pts
- P38:01Shane Pinto Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Michael Amadio (10), Thomas Chabot (25)OTT 3 – 3 WSH · OTT 18% → 47% +28OTT 18% → 47%+28 pts
- P312:43Martin Fehervary Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Tom Wilson (20), Aliaksei Protas (28)OTT 3 – 4 WSH · WSH 53% → 87% +34WSH 53% → 87%+34 pts
- P318:52Brady Tkachuk Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Tim Stützle (44), Jake Sanderson (34)OTT 4 – 4 WSH · OTT <1% → 49% +49OTT <1% → 49%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Capitals 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 57%
- ML OTT +125 / WSH -150
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.1 pts
- WSH: Elo 62.5%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- WSH -135
- OTT +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 2.5 – 3.0 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1546 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +5 | OTT: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) · WSH: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +89 Elo | WSH 62.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 58.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 59.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.61st of 32 |
| 10th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 2.64th of 32 |
| 15th of 320.0 | Margin | +1.02nd of 32 |
| 9th of 3251.2% | Shot share | 50.1%16th of 32 |
| 9th of 3290.6% | Save percentage | 90.9%6th of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 19th of 3213–18 | Road vs home | 18–1313th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OTT |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 25–34 | 36–24 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 9–22 | 15–18 |
| Underdog | 16–12 | 21–6 |
| Overs–unders | 25–34 | 29–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OTT 3–2 WSH in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.