St. Louis Blues at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues- Philip BrobergGoals2
- Brayden SchennAssists2
- Philip BrobergPoints2
Capitals- Connor McMichaelGoals1
- Connor McMichaelAssists1
- Connor McMichaelPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:05Jake Neighbours Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Brayden Schenn (24), Radek Faksa (8)5–2
- P217:58Colton Parayko Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Pavel Buchnevich (29), Robert Thomas (32)4–2
- P217:23Dylan Holloway Goal (18) Tip-In, assists: Ryan Suter (10), Brayden Schenn (23)3–2
- P216:55Connor McMichael Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Roy (17), Ethen Frank (2)2–2
- P117:45Philip Broberg Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Jake Neighbours (14), Pavel Buchnevich (28)2–1
- P115:04Pierre-Luc Dubois Goal (14) Backhand, assists: Taylor Raddysh (19), Connor McMichael (24)1–1
- P111:14Philip Broberg Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Mathieu Joseph (6)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P115:04Pierre-Luc Dubois Goal (14) Backhand, assists: Taylor Raddysh (19), Connor McMichael (24)STL 1 – 1 WSH · WSH 41% → 58% +17WSH 41% → 58%+17 pts
- P117:45Philip Broberg Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Jake Neighbours (14), Pavel Buchnevich (28)STL 2 – 1 WSH · STL 43% → 60% +17STL 43% → 60%+17 pts
- P216:55Connor McMichael Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Roy (17), Ethen Frank (2)STL 2 – 2 WSH · WSH 33% → 55% +23WSH 33% → 55%+23 pts
- P217:23Dylan Holloway Goal (18) Tip-In, assists: Ryan Suter (10), Brayden Schenn (23)STL 3 – 2 WSH · STL 45% → 68% +23STL 45% → 68%+23 pts
- P217:58Colton Parayko Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Pavel Buchnevich (29), Robert Thomas (32)STL 4 – 2 WSH · STL 68% → 86% +18STL 68% → 86%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Capitals 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 59%
- ML STL +135 / WSH -155
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.8 pts
- WSH: Elo 63.6%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- WSH -143
- STL +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 2.5 – 3.0 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1556 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −4 | −12 | STL: Joel Hofer: team allows 0.10 more goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) · WSH: Charlie Lindgren: team allows 0.29 more goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +97 Elo | WSH 63.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 65.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 64.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.71st of 32 |
| 19th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 2.63rd of 32 |
| 19th of 32−0.2 | Margin | +1.12nd of 32 |
| 24th of 3248.4% | Shot share | 50.1%17th of 32 |
| 16th of 3290.0% | Save percentage | 91.1%4th of 32 |
| 20th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 32 |
| 15th of 3213–15 | Road vs home | 18–119th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 33–26 | 36–22 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–10 | 15–17 |
| Underdog | 28–16 | 21–5 |
| Overs–unders | 26–33 | 28–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 1–2 WSH in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.