Calgary Flames at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames- Matt CoronatoGoals1
- Ryan LombergAssists1
- Jonathan HuberdeauPoints1
Capitals- Alex OvechkinGoals1
- Dylan StromeAssists1
- Alex OvechkinPoints1
Scoring summary
- P315:32Jonathan Huberdeau Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Nazem Kadri (23)3–1
- P34:52Alex Ovechkin Goal (30) Snap Shot, assists: John Carlson (35), Dylan Strome (41)2–1
- P116:42Matt Coronato Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Kevin Bahl (13)2–0
- P111:47Martin Pospisil Goal (4) Deflected, assists: Ilya Solovyov (1), Ryan Lomberg (6)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P111:47Martin Pospisil Goal (4) Deflected, assists: Ilya Solovyov (1), Ryan Lomberg (6)CGY 1 – 0 WSH · CGY 37% → 53% +16CGY 37% → 53%+16 pts
- P116:42Matt Coronato Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Kevin Bahl (13)CGY 2 – 0 WSH · CGY 55% → 71% +16CGY 55% → 71%+16 pts
- P34:52Alex Ovechkin Goal (30) Snap Shot, assists: John Carlson (35), Dylan Strome (41)CGY 2 – 1 WSH · WSH 10% → 29% +19WSH 10% → 29%+19 pts
- P315:32Jonathan Huberdeau Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Nazem Kadri (23)CGY 3 – 1 WSH · CGY 89% → >99% +10CGY 89% → >99%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Capitals 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 64%
- ML CGY +170 / WSH -200
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.0 pts
- WSH: Elo 70.3%, market 64.3%
- Fair odds
- WSH -180
- CGY +180 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 2.8 – 3.7 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1471 | 1562 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −18 | +6 | CGY: Dan Vladar: team allows 0.45 more goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) · WSH: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +150 Elo | WSH 70.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 65.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 66.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 64.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 3.71st of 32 |
| 15th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 2.64th of 32 |
| 24th of 32−0.3 | Margin | +1.12nd of 32 |
| 13th of 3250.1% | Shot share | 50.0%16th of 32 |
| 13th of 3290.4% | Save percentage | 91.2%5th of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3210–15 | Road vs home | 18–108th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CGY |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 28–28 | 36–21 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 9–12 | 15–16 |
| Underdog | 19–16 | 21–5 |
| Overs–unders | 22–34 | 28–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CGY 0–3 WSH in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.