Tampa Bay Lightning at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lightning- Mitchell ChaffeeGoals1
- Nick PaulAssists1
- Mitchell ChaffeePoints1
Capitals- Alex OvechkinGoals1
- Matt RoyAssists1
- Alex OvechkinPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:01Brandon Hagel Goal (30) Snap Shot, assists: none3–1
- P316:01Alex Ovechkin Goal (31) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Roy (18)2–1
- P36:08Gage Goncalves Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Paul (15)2–0
- P117:11Mitchell Chaffee Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Brayden Point (30), Nikita Kucherov (60)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P117:11Mitchell Chaffee Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Brayden Point (30), Nikita Kucherov (60)TB 1 – 0 WSH · TB 51% → 68% +17TB 51% → 68%+17 pts
- P36:08Gage Goncalves Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Paul (15)TB 2 – 0 WSH · TB 78% → 94% +16TB 78% → 94%+16 pts
- P316:01Alex Ovechkin Goal (31) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Roy (18)TB 2 – 1 WSH · WSH <1% → 8% +8WSH <1% → 8%+8 pts
- P319:01Brandon Hagel Goal (30) Snap Shot, assists: noneTB 3 – 1 WSH · TB >99% → >99% +0TB >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- TB 51%
- ML TB -115 / WSH -105
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.5 pts
- TB: Elo 45.6%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- TB -104
- WSH +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 2.8 – 2.7 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1551 | 1550 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +9 | +6 | TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.23 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · WSH: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +31 Elo | WSH 54.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 50.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 323.6 | Goals scored | 3.61st of 32 |
| 6th of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 2.64th of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+0.9 | Margin | +1.02nd of 32 |
| 15th of 3250.2% | Shot share | 50.0%17th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3291.5% | Save percentage | 91.0%7th of 32 |
| 2nd of 328–2 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 32 |
| 16th of 3213–15 | Road vs home | 18–129th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 31–27 | 36–23 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 22–20 | 15–18 |
| Underdog | 9–7 | 21–5 |
| Overs–unders | 25–33 | 29–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 2–3 WSH in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.