San Jose Sharks at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks- Will SmithGoals1
- Macklin CelebriniAssists2
- Will SmithPoints2
Senators- Tim StutzleGoals1
- Ridly GreigAssists2
- Tim StutzlePoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:00Michael Amadio Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Artem Zub (7)3–5
- P318:33Will Smith Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: William Eklund (31), Macklin Celebrini (26)3–4
- P38:31David Perron Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Thomas Chabot (24), Drake Batherson (31)2–4
- P33:00Tim Stützle Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Ridly Greig (11)2–3
- P31:26Brady Tkachuk Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Tim Stützle (42), Jake Sanderson (31)2–2
- P29:47Timothy Liljegren Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Alexander Wennberg (18), Klim Kostin (5)2–1
- P25:17Tyler Toffoli Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Will Smith (18), Macklin Celebrini (25)1–1
- P111:05Shane Pinto Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Ridly Greig (10)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P111:05Shane Pinto Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Ridly Greig (10)SJ 0 – 1 OTT · OTT 70% → 83% +12OTT 70% → 83%+12 pts
- P25:17Tyler Toffoli Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Will Smith (18), Macklin Celebrini (25)SJ 1 – 1 OTT · SJ 18% → 33% +15SJ 18% → 33%+15 pts
- P29:47Timothy Liljegren Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Alexander Wennberg (18), Klim Kostin (5)SJ 2 – 1 OTT · SJ 34% → 54% +20SJ 34% → 54%+20 pts
- P31:26Brady Tkachuk Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Tim Stützle (42), Jake Sanderson (31)SJ 2 – 2 OTT · OTT 37% → 63% +26OTT 37% → 63%+26 pts
- P33:00Tim Stützle Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Ridly Greig (11)SJ 2 – 3 OTT · OTT 62% → 84% +22OTT 62% → 84%+22 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Senators 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- OTT 72%
- ML SJ +250 / OTT -300
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 73%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.3 pts
- OTT: Elo 72.7%, market 72.4%
- Fair odds
- OTT -263
- SJ +263 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 2.1 – 3.4 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1368 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −8 | +3 | SJ: Vitek Vanecek: team allows 0.20 more goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) · OTT: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +170 Elo | OTT 72.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 72.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 72.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OTT 72.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 32nd of 322.6 | Goals scored | 2.825th of 32 |
| 32nd of 323.8 | Goals allowed | 2.811th of 32 |
| 32nd of 32−1.2 | Margin | −0.116th of 32 |
| 31st of 3245.5% | Shot share | 51.3%9th of 32 |
| 29th of 3289.2% | Save percentage | 90.5%9th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321–9 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 32 |
| 32nd of 326–25 | Road vs home | 16–1112th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SJ |  OTT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 37–23 | 24–34 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | — | 8–22 |
| Underdog | 37–23 | 16–12 |
| Overs–unders | 28–32 | 24–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SJ 1–2 OTT in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.