Detroit Red Wings at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings- Moritz SeiderGoals1
- Patrick KaneAssists1
- Moritz SeiderPoints1
Capitals- Aliaksei ProtasGoals2
- Aliaksei ProtasAssists1
- Aliaksei ProtasPoints3
Scoring summary
- P39:19Tom Wilson Goal (29) Backhand, assists: Aliaksei Protas (29)2–5
- P35:17Aliaksei Protas Goal (25) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McMichael (26), John Carlson (36)2–4
- P31:57Jakob Chychrun Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (44), Pierre-Luc Dubois (38)2–3
- P30:51Aliaksei Protas Goal (24) Snap Shot, assists: Tom Wilson (22)2–2
- P118:39Taylor Raddysh Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrew Mangiapane (11), Rasmus Sandin (19)2–1
- P17:00Moritz Seider Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Patrick Kane (25), Lucas Raymond (43)2–0
- P10:43Dylan Larkin Goal (26) Snap Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (42)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:43Dylan Larkin Goal (26) Snap Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (42)DET 1 – 0 WSH · DET 33% → 47% +14DET 33% → 47%+14 pts
- P17:00Moritz Seider Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Patrick Kane (25), Lucas Raymond (43)DET 2 – 0 WSH · DET 49% → 64% +15DET 49% → 64%+15 pts
- P118:39Taylor Raddysh Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrew Mangiapane (11), Rasmus Sandin (19)DET 2 – 1 WSH · WSH 31% → 47% +17WSH 31% → 47%+17 pts
- P30:51Aliaksei Protas Goal (24) Snap Shot, assists: Tom Wilson (22)DET 2 – 2 WSH · WSH 35% → 60% +25WSH 35% → 60%+25 pts
- P31:57Jakob Chychrun Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (44), Pierre-Luc Dubois (38)DET 2 – 3 WSH · WSH 60% → 82% +22WSH 60% → 82%+22 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Capitals 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 67%
- ML DET +195 / WSH -230
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.6 pts
- WSH: Elo 67.9%, market 67.3%
- Fair odds
- WSH -206
- DET +206 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 2.7 – 3.8 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1550 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | DET on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +1 | +4 | DET: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · WSH: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +130 Elo | WSH 67.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 65.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 66.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 67.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.62nd of 32 |
| 22nd of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 2.64th of 32 |
| 20th of 32−0.3 | Margin | +1.02nd of 32 |
| 26th of 3248.4% | Shot share | 50.3%14th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3289.7% | Save percentage | 90.9%7th of 32 |
| 18th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 11th of 3214–14 | Road vs home | 19–1312th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 37–25 | 37–25 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 5–12 | 15–19 |
| Underdog | 32–13 | 22–6 |
| Overs–unders | 31–31 | 30–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 2–2 WSH in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.