Carolina Hurricanes at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Jordan MartinookGoals1
- Jordan MartinookAssists1
- Jordan MartinookPoints2
Red Wings- Elmer SoderblomGoals1
- Elmer SoderblomPoints1
Scoring summary
- P310:05Elmer Soderblom Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: none2–1
- P21:29Jordan Staal Goal (12) Wrap-around, assists: Jordan Martinook (18), Shayne Gostisbehere (27)2–0
- P118:59Jordan Martinook Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Jalen Chatfield (9)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P118:59Jordan Martinook Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Jalen Chatfield (9)CAR 1 – 0 DET · CAR 61% → 76% +15CAR 61% → 76%+15 pts
- P21:29Jordan Staal Goal (12) Wrap-around, assists: Jordan Martinook (18), Shayne Gostisbehere (27)CAR 2 – 0 DET · CAR 76% → 88% +12CAR 76% → 88%+12 pts
- P310:05Elmer Soderblom Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: noneCAR 2 – 1 DET · DET 3% → 15% +12DET 3% → 15%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 63%
- ML CAR -190 / DET +160
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.2 pts
- CAR: Elo 52.8%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- CAR -170
- DET +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 3.6 – 2.9 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1544 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | −4 | CAR: Frederik Andersen: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) · DET: Alex Lyon: team allows 0.10 more goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +19 Elo | CAR 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 65.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 62.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 2.918th of 32 |
| 9th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.223rd of 32 |
| 8th of 32+0.4 | Margin | −0.320th of 32 |
| 1st of 3256.2% | Shot share | 48.1%27th of 32 |
| 24th of 3289.6% | Save percentage | 89.7%21st of 32 |
| 20th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 21st of 3212–18 | Road vs home | 16–1618th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CAR |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 27–34 | 36–24 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 24–32 | 5–12 |
| Underdog | 3–2 | 31–12 |
| Overs–unders | 25–36 | 31–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CAR 3–0 DET in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.