Columbus Blue Jackets at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets- James van RiemsdykGoals2
- Boone JennerAssists3
- Boone JennerPoints3
Red Wings- J.T. CompherGoals1
- J.T. CompherAssists1
- J.T. CompherPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:03Kirill Marchenko Goal (24) Tip-In, assists: Adam Fantilli (19)5–2
- P216:39J.T. Compher Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Jonatan Berggren (9), Erik Gustafsson (14)4–2
- P215:01James van Riemsdyk Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Boone Jenner (5), Kent Johnson (21)4–1
- P212:08Kent Johnson Goal (20) Tip-In, assists: Dante Fabbro (10), Boone Jenner (4)3–1
- P29:43Sean Kuraly Goal (5) Batted, assists: Mathieu Olivier (9), Joseph LaBate (1)2–1
- P24:16James van Riemsdyk Goal (13) Tip-In, assists: Jake Christiansen (7), Boone Jenner (3)1–1
- P20:27Alex DeBrincat Goal (27) Snap Shot, assists: J.T. Compher (18)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P20:27Alex DeBrincat Goal (27) Snap Shot, assists: J.T. Compher (18)CBJ 0 – 1 DET · DET 57% → 74% +16DET 57% → 74%+16 pts
- P24:16James van Riemsdyk Goal (13) Tip-In, assists: Jake Christiansen (7), Boone Jenner (3)CBJ 1 – 1 DET · CBJ 26% → 43% +17CBJ 26% → 43%+17 pts
- P29:43Sean Kuraly Goal (5) Batted, assists: Mathieu Olivier (9), Joseph LaBate (1)CBJ 2 – 1 DET · CBJ 44% → 64% +20CBJ 44% → 64%+20 pts
- P212:08Kent Johnson Goal (20) Tip-In, assists: Dante Fabbro (10), Boone Jenner (4)CBJ 3 – 1 DET · CBJ 65% → 82% +17CBJ 65% → 82%+17 pts
- P215:01James van Riemsdyk Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Boone Jenner (5), Kent Johnson (21)CBJ 4 – 1 DET · CBJ 84% → 94% +10CBJ 84% → 94%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Wings 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- DET 59%
- ML CBJ +135 / DET -155
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.4 pts
- DET: Elo 60.2%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- DET -143
- CBJ +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 3.0 – 3.5 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1481 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −9 | +4 | CBJ: Daniil Tarasov: team allows 0.24 more goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) · DET: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +72 Elo | DET 60.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 62.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 62.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 2.917th of 32 |
| 25th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.122nd of 32 |
| 13th of 32+0.1 | Margin | −0.218th of 32 |
| 18th of 3249.7% | Shot share | 47.7%28th of 32 |
| 29th of 3289.2% | Save percentage | 89.9%19th of 32 |
| 12th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 32 |
| 29th of 329–20 | Road vs home | 16–1518th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CBJ |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 36–22 | 36–22 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 5–5 | 5–10 |
| Underdog | 31–17 | 31–12 |
| Overs–unders | 33–25 | 29–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CBJ 0–4 DET in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.