Dallas Stars at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars- Jason RobertsonGoals1
- Jason RobertsonAssists1
- Jason RobertsonPoints2
Blue Jackets- Kirill MarchenkoGoals2
- Dmitri VoronkovAssists2
- Kirill MarchenkoPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:28Adam Fantilli Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Dmitri Voronkov (20), Kirill Marchenko (36)4–6
- P317:53Mavrik Bourque Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Evgenii Dadonov (17), Logan Stankoven (19)4–5
- P32:37James van Riemsdyk Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Sean Kuraly (8)3–5
- P213:57Jason Robertson Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (36)3–4
- P29:38Roope Hintz Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (35), Jason Robertson (32)2–4
- P28:46Ivan Provorov Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Kent Johnson (20), Boone Jenner (2)1–4
- P21:11Kirill Marchenko Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Adam Fantilli (18)1–3
- P19:37Jamie Benn Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (34), Thomas Harley (21)1–2
- P14:37Mathieu Olivier Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Damon Severson (17), Zach Aston-Reese (9)0–2
- P10:30Kirill Marchenko Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Ivan Provorov (20), Dmitri Voronkov (19)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:37Mathieu Olivier Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Damon Severson (17), Zach Aston-Reese (9)DAL 0 – 2 CBJ · CBJ 52% → 66% +15CBJ 52% → 66%+15 pts
- P19:37Jamie Benn Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (34), Thomas Harley (21)DAL 1 – 2 CBJ · DAL 32% → 47% +15DAL 32% → 47%+15 pts
- P21:11Kirill Marchenko Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Adam Fantilli (18)DAL 1 – 3 CBJ · CBJ 57% → 73% +17CBJ 57% → 73%+17 pts
- P213:57Jason Robertson Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (36)DAL 3 – 4 CBJ · DAL 19% → 37% +18DAL 19% → 37%+18 pts
- P32:37James van Riemsdyk Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Sean Kuraly (8)DAL 3 – 5 CBJ · CBJ 69% → 88% +19CBJ 69% → 88%+19 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 64%
- ML DAL -195 / CBJ +165
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.2 pts
- DAL: Elo 58.4%, market 63.7%
- Fair odds
- DAL -175
- CBJ +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 3.6 – 2.9 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1573 | 1477 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | +6 | DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · CBJ: Elvis Merzlikins: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +59 Elo | DAL 58.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 66.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 65.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 63.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.36th of 32 |
| 3rd of 322.5 | Goals allowed | 3.325th of 32 |
| 4th of 32+0.8 | Margin | 0.014th of 32 |
| 7th of 3252.3% | Shot share | 49.6%19th of 32 |
| 4th of 3291.2% | Save percentage | 89.3%28th of 32 |
| 2nd of 328–2 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 4th of 3217–11 | Road vs home | 18–108th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 26–31 | 35–22 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 22–27 | 5–5 |
| Underdog | 4–4 | 30–17 |
| Overs–unders | 24–33 | 32–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 3–0 CBJ in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.