Detroit Red Wings at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings- Alex DeBrincatGoals2
- Patrick KaneAssists2
- Patrick KanePoints3
Blue Jackets- Justin DanforthGoals1
- Boone JennerAssists2
- Justin DanforthPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:52Adam Fantilli Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Werenski (46), Boone Jenner (7)3–5
- P317:43Justin Danforth Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Zach Aston-Reese (10), Ivan Provorov (21)3–4
- P316:36Alex DeBrincat Goal (29) Snap Shot, assists: Erik Gustafsson (15), Patrick Kane (23)3–3
- P33:34Patrick Kane Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Simon Edvinsson (17), Albert Johansson (6)2–3
- P217:55Mathieu Olivier Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Justin Danforth (8)1–3
- P217:23Dmitri Voronkov Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Kent Johnson (22), Zach Werenski (45)1–2
- P213:06Alex DeBrincat Goal (28) Snap Shot, assists: Patrick Kane (22), Moritz Seider (31)1–1
- P25:31Denton Mateychuk Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Boone Jenner (6), James van Riemsdyk (15)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P25:31Denton Mateychuk Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Boone Jenner (6), James van Riemsdyk (15)DET 0 – 1 CBJ · CBJ 48% → 67% +19CBJ 48% → 67%+19 pts
- P213:06Alex DeBrincat Goal (28) Snap Shot, assists: Patrick Kane (22), Moritz Seider (31)DET 1 – 1 CBJ · DET 31% → 51% +21DET 31% → 51%+21 pts
- P217:23Dmitri Voronkov Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Kent Johnson (22), Zach Werenski (45)DET 1 – 2 CBJ · CBJ 49% → 71% +23CBJ 49% → 71%+23 pts
- P316:36Alex DeBrincat Goal (29) Snap Shot, assists: Erik Gustafsson (15), Patrick Kane (23)DET 3 – 3 CBJ · DET 6% → 51% +44DET 6% → 51%+44 pts
- P317:43Justin Danforth Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Zach Aston-Reese (10), Ivan Provorov (21)DET 3 – 4 CBJ · CBJ 50% → 97% +47CBJ 50% → 97%+47 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Wings 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- DET 52%
- ML DET -120 / CBJ +100
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.0 pts
- DET: Elo 46.2%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- DET -109
- CBJ +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.3 – 3.2 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +6 | DET: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · CBJ: Elvis Merzlikins: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CBJ +27 Elo | CBJ 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 51.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.44th of 32 |
| 22nd of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.325th of 32 |
| 21st of 32−0.2 | Margin | +0.113th of 32 |
| 28th of 3247.7% | Shot share | 49.7%18th of 32 |
| 17th of 3289.8% | Save percentage | 89.2%28th of 32 |
| 4th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 10th of 3214–13 | Road vs home | 19–107th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 36–23 | 37–22 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 5–11 | 5–5 |
| Underdog | 31–12 | 32–17 |
| Overs–unders | 30–29 | 34–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 4–1 CBJ in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.