Calgary Flames at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames- Nazem KadriGoals1
- Jonathan HuberdeauAssists1
- Nazem KadriPoints1
Hurricanes- Jackson BlakeAssists2
- Jackson BlakePoints2
Scoring summary
- OT3:16Sebastian Aho Goal (23) Slap Shot, assists: Jaccob Slavin (17), Jackson Blake (11)1–2
- P37:06Nazem Kadri Goal (21) Slap Shot, assists: Jonathan Huberdeau (22), MacKenzie Weegar (27)1–1
- P219:25Jaccob Slavin Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Jackson Blake (10)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P219:25Jaccob Slavin Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Jackson Blake (10)CGY 0 – 1 CAR · CAR 64% → 83% +20CAR 64% → 83%+20 pts
- P37:06Nazem Kadri Goal (21) Slap Shot, assists: Jonathan Huberdeau (22), MacKenzie Weegar (27)CGY 1 – 1 CAR · CGY 14% → 39% +25CGY 14% → 39%+25 pts
- OT3:16Sebastian Aho Goal (23) Slap Shot, assists: Jaccob Slavin (17), Jackson Blake (11)CGY 1 – 2 CAR · CAR 54% → 99% +45CAR 54% → 99%+45 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 72%
- ML CGY +250 / CAR -300
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.9 pts
- CAR: Elo 63.5%, market 72.4%
- Fair odds
- CAR -263
- CGY +263 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 2.1 – 3.4 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1471 | 1542 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | CAR and CGY on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +6 | −4 | CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.16 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) · CAR: Pyotr Kochetkov: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +96 Elo | CAR 63.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 69.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 68.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 72.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 3.211th of 32 |
| 14th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 2.89th of 32 |
| 24th of 32−0.3 | Margin | +0.48th of 32 |
| 17th of 3249.9% | Shot share | 56.0%1st of 32 |
| 11th of 3290.5% | Save percentage | 89.5%25th of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 23rd of 3211–17 | Road vs home | 22–83rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CGY |  CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 29–30 | 27–33 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 9–12 | 24–31 |
| Underdog | 20–18 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders | 22–37 | 25–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CGY 1–2 CAR in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.