Calgary Flames at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames
Panthers- Evan RodriguesGoals1
- Evan RodriguesAssists1
- Evan RodriguesPoints2
Scoring summary
- P316:08Mackie Samoskevich Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Sam Bennett (20), Evan Rodrigues (13)0–3
- P219:24Evan Rodrigues Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Aaron Ekblad (27), Sam Bennett (19)0–2
- P24:47Jonah Gadjovich Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: A.J. Greer (10), Nate Schmidt (10)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P24:47Jonah Gadjovich Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: A.J. Greer (10), Nate Schmidt (10)CGY 0 – 1 FLA · FLA 66% → 82% +15FLA 66% → 82%+15 pts
- P219:24Evan Rodrigues Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Aaron Ekblad (27), Sam Bennett (19)CGY 0 – 2 FLA · FLA 83% → 94% +11FLA 83% → 94%+11 pts
- P316:08Mackie Samoskevich Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Sam Bennett (20), Evan Rodrigues (13)CGY 0 – 3 FLA · FLA >99% → >99% +0FLA >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Panthers 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- FLA 71%
- ML CGY +230 / FLA -280
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.7 pts
- FLA: Elo 69.1%, market 70.9%
- Fair odds
- FLA -243
- CGY +243 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 2.1 – 3.4 FLA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | FLA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1473 | 1562 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −14 | +3 | CGY: Dan Vladar: team allows 0.35 more goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) · FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +140 Elo | FLA 69.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 71.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 70.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | FLA 70.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 3.46th of 32 |
| 14th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 2.911th of 32 |
| 23rd of 32−0.3 | Margin | +0.57th of 32 |
| 14th of 3250.2% | Shot share | 54.1%2nd of 32 |
| 11th of 3290.4% | Save percentage | 90.4%12th of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 32 |
| 21st of 3211–16 | Road vs home | 17–1212th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CGY |  FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 29–29 | 30–30 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 9–12 | 22–27 |
| Underdog | 20–17 | 8–3 |
| Overs–unders | 22–36 | 31–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CGY 2–1 FLA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.