Utah Hockey Club at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Utah HC- Dylan GuentherGoals1
- Michael KesselringAssists2
- Michael KesselringPoints2
Red Wings- Jonatan BerggrenGoals1
- Vladimir TarasenkoAssists1
- Jonatan BerggrenPoints1
Scoring summary
- P37:51Lawson Crouse Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Jack McBain (7), Josh Doan (8)4–2
- P32:55Kevin Stenlund Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Kesselring (19)3–2
- P213:01Nick Schmaltz Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Barrett Hayton (19), Clayton Keller (48)2–2
- P18:49Jonatan Berggren Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Tyler Motte (3), Patrick Kane (24)1–2
- P13:17Dylan Larkin Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Elmer Soderblom (5), Vladimir Tarasenko (17)1–1
- P12:08Dylan Guenther Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Alexander Kerfoot (10), Michael Kesselring (18)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:17Dylan Larkin Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Elmer Soderblom (5), Vladimir Tarasenko (17)UTAH 1 – 1 DET · DET 31% → 45% +14DET 31% → 45%+14 pts
- P18:49Jonatan Berggren Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Tyler Motte (3), Patrick Kane (24)UTAH 1 – 2 DET · DET 45% → 61% +16DET 45% → 61%+16 pts
- P213:01Nick Schmaltz Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Barrett Hayton (19), Clayton Keller (48)UTAH 2 – 2 DET · UTAH 32% → 54% +21UTAH 32% → 54%+21 pts
- P32:55Kevin Stenlund Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Kesselring (19)UTAH 3 – 2 DET · UTAH 53% → 77% +25UTAH 53% → 77%+25 pts
- P37:51Lawson Crouse Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Jack McBain (7), Josh Doan (8)UTAH 4 – 2 DET · UTAH 81% → 95% +15UTAH 81% → 95%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Utah HC 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- UTAH 55%
- ML UTAH -135 / DET +115
- Pre-line forecast
- UTAH 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTAH 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.9 pts
- UTAH: Elo 45.3%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- UTAH -124
- DET +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 3.4 – 3.1 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | −2 | UTAH: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) · DET: Alex Lyon: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +33 Elo | DET 54.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTAH 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 50.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | UTAH 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| UTAH | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 322.8 | Goals scored | 2.918th of 32 |
| 16th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.222nd of 32 |
| 18th of 32−0.1 | Margin | −0.320th of 32 |
| 13th of 3250.3% | Shot share | 48.1%27th of 32 |
| 15th of 3290.2% | Save percentage | 89.8%20th of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 10th of 3215–15 | Road vs home | 16–1723rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTAH |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 27–34 | 37–24 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–21 | 5–12 |
| Underdog | 20–13 | 32–12 |
| Overs–unders | 26–35 | 31–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.