Seattle Kraken at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken- Matty BeniersGoals1
- Matty BeniersAssists1
- Matty BeniersPoints2
Flyers- Owen TippettGoals1
- Sean CouturierAssists1
- Owen TippettPoints1
Scoring summary
- P33:55Brandon Montour Goal (13) Slap Shot, assists: Matty Beniers (20)4–1
- P219:38Chandler Stephenson Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: none3–1
- P218:57Matty Beniers Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Ryker Evans (18), Adam Larsson (13)2–1
- P210:11Tye Kartye Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Vince Dunn (19)1–1
- P119:28Owen Tippett Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Matvei Michkov (27), Sean Couturier (21)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P119:28Owen Tippett Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Matvei Michkov (27), Sean Couturier (21)SEA 0 – 1 PHI · PHI 56% → 72% +16PHI 56% → 72%+16 pts
- P210:11Tye Kartye Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Vince Dunn (19)SEA 1 – 1 PHI · SEA 26% → 45% +19SEA 26% → 45%+19 pts
- P218:57Matty Beniers Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Ryker Evans (18), Adam Larsson (13)SEA 2 – 1 PHI · SEA 46% → 69% +24SEA 46% → 69%+24 pts
- P219:38Chandler Stephenson Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: noneSEA 3 – 1 PHI · SEA 70% → 87% +18SEA 70% → 87%+18 pts
- P33:55Brandon Montour Goal (13) Slap Shot, assists: Matty Beniers (20)SEA 4 – 1 PHI · SEA 91% → 98% +7SEA 91% → 98%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Flyers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 57%
- ML SEA +125 / PHI -145
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.8 pts
- PHI: Elo 59.9%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- PHI -133
- SEA +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 2.5 – 3.0 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1455 | 1459 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −28 | +2 | SEA: Philipp Grubauer: team allows 0.71 more goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) · PHI: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +70 Elo | PHI 59.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 58.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 59.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 2.917th of 32 |
| 24th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.428th of 32 |
| 23rd of 32−0.3 | Margin | −0.427th of 32 |
| 26th of 3248.4% | Shot share | 50.4%14th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3289.6% | Save percentage | 88.4%32nd of 32 |
| 27th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3212–18 | Road vs home | 15–1621st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 31–32 | 31–32 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 8–13 | 7–12 |
| Underdog | 23–19 | 24–20 |
| Overs–unders | 32–31 | 32–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 2–1 PHI in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.