Winnipeg Jets at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Mark ScheifeleGoals1
- Gabriel VilardiAssists3
- Mark ScheifelePoints3
Flyers- Matvei MichkovGoals1
- Matvei MichkovPoints1
Scoring summary
- P317:18Matvei Michkov Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: none4–1
- P29:03Adam Lowry Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Mason Appleton (11), Nino Niederreiter (16)4–0
- P25:28Kyle Connor Goal (32) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (36), Gabriel Vilardi (32)3–0
- P115:13Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (35), Gabriel Vilardi (31)2–0
- P18:32Mark Scheifele Goal (35) Backhand, assists: Gabriel Vilardi (30), Kyle Connor (46)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:32Mark Scheifele Goal (35) Backhand, assists: Gabriel Vilardi (30), Kyle Connor (46)WPG 1 – 0 PHI · WPG 56% → 70% +15WPG 56% → 70%+15 pts
- P115:13Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (35), Gabriel Vilardi (31)WPG 2 – 0 PHI · WPG 71% → 84% +13WPG 71% → 84%+13 pts
- P25:28Kyle Connor Goal (32) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (36), Gabriel Vilardi (32)WPG 3 – 0 PHI · WPG 86% → 94% +8WPG 86% → 94%+8 pts
- P29:03Adam Lowry Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Mason Appleton (11), Nino Niederreiter (16)WPG 4 – 0 PHI · WPG 95% → 98% +3WPG 95% → 98%+3 pts
- P317:18Matvei Michkov Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: noneWPG 4 – 1 PHI · PHI <1% → <1% +0PHI <1% → <1%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- WPG 56%
- ML WPG -140 / PHI +120
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.7 pts
- WPG: Elo 57.9%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- WPG -128
- PHI +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 2.9 – 2.6 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1575 | 1463 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −18 | +3 | WPG: Eric Comrie: team allows 0.46 more goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) · PHI: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +56 Elo | WPG 57.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 54.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WPG 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 323.5 | Goals scored | 3.016th of 32 |
| 1st of 322.4 | Goals allowed | 3.428th of 32 |
| 1st of 32+1.1 | Margin | −0.426th of 32 |
| 10th of 3250.5% | Shot share | 50.4%11th of 32 |
| 1st of 3292.3% | Save percentage | 88.5%32nd of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3219–11 | Road vs home | 15–1516th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WPG |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 33–29 | 31–31 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 23–23 | 7–12 |
| Underdog | 10–6 | 24–19 |
| Overs–unders | 29–33 | 32–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WPG 0–3 PHI in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.