Winnipeg Jets at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Nikolaj EhlersGoals1
- Mark ScheifeleAssists1
- Nikolaj EhlersPoints1
Islanders- Ryan PulockGoals1
- Casey CizikasAssists1
- Kyle PalmieriPoints1
Scoring summary
- P312:51Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (45), Josh Morrissey (40)2–3
- P34:03Ryan Pulock Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Anders Lee (20), Casey Cizikas (7)1–3
- P28:48Josh Morrissey Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (34), Kyle Connor (44)1–2
- P21:33Brock Nelson Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Maxim Tsyplakov (19), Noah Dobson (19)0–2
- P116:49Kyle Palmieri Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Brock Nelson (23), Bo Horvat (23)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P116:49Kyle Palmieri Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Brock Nelson (23), Bo Horvat (23)WPG 0 – 1 NYI · NYI 38% → 55% +17NYI 38% → 55%+17 pts
- P21:33Brock Nelson Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Maxim Tsyplakov (19), Noah Dobson (19)WPG 0 – 2 NYI · NYI 57% → 74% +17NYI 57% → 74%+17 pts
- P28:48Josh Morrissey Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (34), Kyle Connor (44)WPG 1 – 2 NYI · WPG 22% → 40% +18WPG 22% → 40%+18 pts
- P34:03Ryan Pulock Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Anders Lee (20), Casey Cizikas (7)WPG 1 – 3 NYI · NYI 70% → 89% +19NYI 70% → 89%+19 pts
- P312:51Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (45), Josh Morrissey (40)WPG 2 – 3 NYI · WPG 2% → 17% +15WPG 2% → 17%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- WPG 64%
- ML WPG -195 / NYI +165
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.7 pts
- WPG: Elo 65.3%, market 63.7%
- Fair odds
- WPG -175
- NYI +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 3.1 – 2.4 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1579 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | NYI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +13 | −2 | WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.32 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +110 Elo | WPG 65.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 57.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 58.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WPG 63.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 323.5 | Goals scored | 2.826th of 32 |
| 1st of 322.3 | Goals allowed | 3.017th of 32 |
| 1st of 32+1.2 | Margin | −0.319th of 32 |
| 10th of 3250.6% | Shot share | 50.4%12th of 32 |
| 1st of 3292.3% | Save percentage | 90.4%13th of 32 |
| 2nd of 328–2 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3219–10 | Road vs home | 14–1524th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WPG |  NYI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 33–28 | 29–31 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 23–22 | 8–21 |
| Underdog | 10–6 | 21–10 |
| Overs–unders | 29–32 | 31–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WPG 2–1 NYI in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.